The probability of Iran expanding its targeting to include US bases in the region has increased following the US strikes on Iran on 22 June. It will likely be days before the impact of the US strikes on the sites is known, especially in the case of Fordow. Early assessments from Iran, Saudi Arabia and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) indicate “no increase in off-site radiation levels”, with more information likely to emerge.
The immediate aftermath
The US struck nuclear sites at Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan. According to reports, the US military used six B-2 bombers to drop 12 GBU57 MassiveOrdnance Penetrator (MOP) “bunker buster” bombs on the nuclear enrichment plant at Fordow, which is buried deep underground, while one B-2dropped two “bunker buster” bombs on Natanz. Submarines in the Gulf also fired 30 cruise missiles at the Natanz and Isfahan facilities.
US President Donald Trump in a televised address shortly after the strikes said that Iran’s nuclear facilities had been “completely and totally obliterated” and characterised the operation as a “spectacular” success. He also said that the US had coordinated closely with Israel on the operation and called on Iran to negotiate.
According to a CBS News report, confirmed by Amwaj media, the US communicated to Iran through diplomatic channels before attacking the nuclear sites that the strikes were all the US had planned, and Iranian regime change was not the goal. In his televised address, however, Trump stated, “If peace does not come quickly, we will go after those other targets with precision, speed and skill”. In a post on social media, Trump added that "any retaliation by Iran against the United States of America will be met with force far greater than what was witnessed tonight”.
After the attack, some Iranian lawmakers and Iranian state television claimed that Fordow had not been seriously damaged. However, it will take days, if not longer, before the full impact of the strikes on the sites is known, especially in the case of Fordow.
The Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI) issued a statement deeming the action “contrary to international law” and taken “with the cooperation of the International Atomic Energy Agency”. Such statements increase the likelihood Iran will take action in the nuclear realm, including by considering exiting the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).
Iranian response
In a post on X, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated the US strikes will have “everlasting consequences”, adding that “Iran reserves all options to defend its sovereignty, interest, and people”. Iranian leaders, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, have over the past week repeatedly warned the US that Iran will retaliate directly against its interests in the region should the US join the war.
On 21 June, top Iranian security official Gen Mohsen Rezaei warned on Iranian state television that if the US attacked Iran, Iran would respond with attacks on US military bases in the Gulf and by moving to close the Strait of Hormuz.
Over the past week, Iranian proxies in the region, including the Yemen-based rebel Houthi movement and armed groups in Iraq, have also threatened to attack US interests in the region if it enters the war.
Iran's options
Iran’s options for retaliation include exiting the NPT and moving towards weaponising its nuclear programme, striking US military and diplomatic assets in Iraq and Syria, conducting attacks against US military assets in the Gulf Arab states, striking against US-linked assets in the Strait of Hormuz, closing the Strait of Hormuz, and targeting oil production facilities in Gulf Arab states. In an outlier scenario, Iran may opt not to respond directly against the US.
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