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Balochistan province is home to one of Pakistan’s largest undeveloped mines, Reko Diq. Jointly owned by Canadian mining giant, Barrick Mining Corporation, the federal government of Pakistan and the provincial government of Balochistan, previous development attempts at the site stalled.
With the partnership now reconstituted, the question remains whether past threats such as social and political instability, the energy crisis, and the country’s economic woes will continue to halt production, which is set to being in 2028. This article explores the geopolitical risks investors should monitor.
Militant groups’ heightened capabilities
Balochistan, where the Reko Diq and Saindak mines are located, is prone to violence from a plethora of militant and separatist groups. These groups, predominantly the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) and the notorious Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) along with smaller outfits, maintain an elevated presence in the province and show heightened intent to disrupt mining activities.
Significant attacks, including hijackings and suicide bombings as recent as 2025, underscore the difficulties in guaranteeing long-term security.
In response, the paramilitary Frontier Corps and the provincial Balochistan Levies have increased their presence across the province to guard pipelines and railway tracks associated with mining projects.
However, state oversight across large swaths of land is limited, with gaps in intelligence sharing and preventive operations. These gaps leave infrastructure exposed to attack by militant groups often possess comparatively greater understanding of the terrain.
Despite these challenges, the immediate security risks at mining sites are relatively contained due to multiple layers of protection and protocols implemented by foreign investors themselves. These measures significantly reduce the likelihood of complex or sophisticated attacks on site.
Community distrust fuelling social unrest
As mining projects garner more media attention and raise their public profile, community engagement becomes increasingly critical.
High poverty levels and a lack of economic development in Balochistan cannot be ignored. Many local communities harbour strong grievances against the state and often view foreign investment in the province’s natural resources as predatory and exploitative.
This perception often leads to civil unrest, including protests and sit-ins, which pose indirect threats to foreign companies operating in the province. Although such activity is unlikely to directly target business personnel on site, security threats remain elevated for personnel travelling through and around Balochistan.
Protest activity can also cause supply chain disruption in the form of blocked highways and key routes. For example, in March, ethnic Baloch groups protesting enforced disappearances blocked multiple vital highways across the province for roughly ten days.
Such incidents are likely to recur, resulting in operational disruptions from prolonged sit-ins or clashes with security forces along key routes.
Absence of well-developed and extensive infrastructure
Beyond security concerns, major infrastructural deficiencies present significant challenges. Underinvestment has resulted in underdeveloped road and rail networks, inadequate water and electricity provisions, limited waste disposal systems and insufficient telecommunication infrastructure.
Ensuring that supporting infrastructure is established and regularly maintained, particularly in the face of harsh weather conditions, will have to be a state priority. Without this, operational disruptions are inevitable and will impede the success of mining projects in the region.
Formidable challenges ahead
Although Pakistan displays a great desire to attract foreign direct investment and harness its mining potential, the challenges facing the state are enormous.
Managing Balochistan’s fragile and dynamic security landscape will be a critical task for the state, especially in the wake of militant groups’ heightened intent and capabilities.
Sustained political efforts to address security threats and improved community engagement will be critical to alleviating investor hesitancy.
To demonstrate its commitment to securing foreign investment and developing critical natural reserves, the state must prioritise operational continuity in this volatile region.