Geopolitical Calendar

Date	Event	Location
January 2025	Canada ascends to G7 Presidency	Global
Canada will take over from Italy.
20 Jan 2025	Presidential inauguration	US
Donald Trump and JD Vance will be inaugurated as President and Vice President.
26 Jan 2025	Presidential election	Belarus
Another five-year term for President Alexander Lukashenko is highly likely. Major protests are unlikely amid political repression.
9 Feb 2025	General election	Ecuador
The president and 137 members of the National Assembly (legislature) will be elected for a four-year term. President Daniel Noboa and left-leaning Luisa González, who came second in the 2023 snap elections, are the likely front runners in the presidential race, which is set to be highly competitive and uncertain. While political instability risks increase amid inter-party tensions, Noboa will likely be re-elected in a close run-off vote on 13 April.
9 Feb 2025	Parliamentary elections	Kosovo
Parliamentary elections will see all 120 seats contested for the Assembly. The governing Self-Determination Movement remains favoured to win a plurality of seats.
10-11 Feb 2025	AI Action Summit	Global
The third summit of its kind will focus on public interest AI; the future of work; innovation and culture; trust in AI; and global AI governance. It will be held in Paris (France).
20-21 Feb 2025	G20 Foreign Ministers meeting	Global
The meeting will likely be dominated by discussions over geopolitical conflicts such as Ukraine and Israel-Hamas. South Africa will likely seek to negotiate a consensus despite elevated geopolitical tensions between members.
23 Feb 2025	Snap federal election	Germany
Following the collapse of the ruling coalition, Germany plans to hold a vote of confidence on 16 December leading to a snap general election. The election is likely to result in a centre-right government between the current opposition Christian Democratic Union the current ruling Social Democratic Party. The new government would prioritise alleviating energy costs and regulatory burdens for businesses.
24 Feb 2025	Anniversary of 2022 Ukraine war	Ukraine
Fighting is likely to intensify around the third anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, with a low likelihood of major military or political breakthroughs. US pressure is likely to lead to some form of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine in the first months of 2025, but both Russia and Ukraine will try to gain military or territorial advantages to secure leverage ahead of negotiations .
26-27 Feb 2025	G20 Finance and Central Bank Ministerial Meeting	Global
South Africa as host will likely include climate mitigation and adaption financing, food insecurity and inequality issues on the agenda.
28 Feb - 30 Mar 2025	Muslim holy month of Ramadan	Global
Terrorism threats and propaganda can be elevated in some regions during Ramadan. In addition, protests have occurred in Muslim-majority countries during Ramadan and the celebration of Eid al-Fitr (marking the end of Ramadan). Ramadan could also trigger anti-Muslim hate crimes or sentiment in some non-Muslim majority countries. The Middle East conflicts will likely drive increased security threats during Ramadan in 2025.
March 2025	Annual “Two Sessions” meetings	China
Annual meetings of the government’s top advisory body, the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, and the National Peoples’ Congress will occur, outlining China’s economic policies.
2 Mar 2025	Legislative, local and regional elections	Tajikistan
The lower chamber (Assembly of Representatives), as well as regional and city assemblies, will have elections. Given the extremely tight control of the legislative branch by the executive, the ruling People’s Democratic Party is very unlikely to face any setbacks.
28 Mar 2025	Upper house elections	Tajikistan
There can be only non-party candidates in the election. However, President Emomali Rahmon will likely retain full control.
29 Mar 2025	Day of the Young Combatant	Chile
The day commemorates the 1985 killings of two brothers by the police. Violent protests in Santiago and other cities traditionally occur on the day.
12-20 Apr 2025	Jewish religious holiday Passover (Pesach)	Global
Threats against Jewish communities, people and assets are likely to be elevated in some countries during the Passover religious holiday. Islamist extremist groups have planned or conducted attacks targeting Passover celebrations in Israel. Middle East conflicts is likely to increase the intent of Islamist and right-wing extremists to target Jewish communities and religious assets during Passover.
20 Apr 2025	Christian holiday of Easter Sunday	Global
The Easter religious holiday is not generally associated with elevated violent extremist threats, though attacks have targeted religious services in some countries (notably in Sri Lanka in 2019).
21-26 Apr 2025	World Bank and International Monetary Fund Spring Meetings	Global
Stakeholders and decision-makers will discuss critical issues including the inflation outlook, growth trends and wider geopolitical developments.
1 May 2025	May Day	Global
May Day is typically celebrated by socialist and communist political movements and is a global day of action for anti-capitalist, anarchist and other left-wing activists. May Day protests in parts of Europe and North America involve vandalism, property damage and clashes with law enforcement and right-wing counter-demonstrators.
11 May 2025	Parliamentary elections	Albania
The Socialist Party is likely to hold on to power as the opposition remains divided. For the first time, Albanian citizens living abroad will be able to participate through electronic voting or mail-in ballots following recent electoral reforms.
12 May 2025	General election	Philippines
All 318 seats in the House of Representatives (lower house) and 12 of the 24 seats in the Senate (upper house) will be contested. Local elections will also be held for the executive and legislative branches.
15 May 2025	Nakba Day	Israel, Palestinian Territories
Palestinians commemorate Nakba (“catastrophe”) – a term they use to refer to when more than 700,000 Arabs fled or were expelled during the creation of Israel. The Middle East conflicts will drive higher turnouts at related protests globally.
18 May 2025	Presidential election	Poland
Incumbent Andrzej Duda is ineligible for re-election. The election is likely to go to a second-round run-off on 1 June, and Warsaw mayor Rafal Trzaskowski, the candidate for the governing coalition, is the likely winner. Trzaskowski’s election would enable the coalition to pursue its agenda, while a victory by the opposition candidate would disrupt its agenda significantly.
25 May 2025	Legislative election	Suriname
Suriname will hold its first legislative election under a new proportional representation system.
27 May - 1 June 2025	World Health Assembly	Global
The 77th WHO World Health Assembly is being held in Geneva (Switzerland). The theme is All for Health, Health for All. Negotiations on a global Pandemic Accord, underway since 2021, are due to conclude at the summit – which has been delayed multiple times.
June 2025	G7 Leaders’ Summit	Global
Canada will host the G7 Leaders Summit in Kananaskis (Alberta).
5 Jun 2025	Legislative elections	Burundi
During the elections, 100 seats will be directly contested for the National Assembly (legislature) and a further between 18 and 23 co-opted members who are not directly elected.
24-25 Jun 2025	North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) Summit	Global
The Netherlands for the first time will host the NATO Summit. It will take place in The Hague.
1 Jul 2025	Adopts the Euro	Bulgaria
Sofia is expected to adopt the euro and become the 21st eurozone member. In July 2024, the Bulgarian parliament passed the relevant bill on its first reading.
17 Aug 2025	General elections	Bolivia
Voters will elect the President, Vice President, and members of the legislative chambers. The elections are shaped by significant internal divisions within the ruling Movement for Socialism (MAS) party, as current President Luis Arce and former president Evo Morales, who has been barred from running, vie for influence.
September 2025	First crewed mission to the Moon since 1972	Global
Artemis II, the first crewed mission to the Moon since 1972 and second mission of the Artemis Program, is scheduled to launch no earlier than September 2025 .
16 Sep 2025	General elections	Malawi
Incumbent President Lazarus Chakwera of the Malawi Congress Party will seek re-election against former president Peter Mutharika of the opposition Democratic Progressive Party. The 193 members of the National Assembly will also be elected by first-past-the-post voting in single-member constituencies.
13-18 Oct 2025	World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF) Annual Meeting	Global
Experts, politicians and financial stakeholders will gather in Washinton DC (US) to discuss critically relevant issues to the global economy.
30 Nov 2025	General election	Honduras
The president, members of the National Congress, and 20 representatives to the Central American Parliament will be elected.