Jan-May 2024 |
Full NATO membership military exercise |
North America, Europe |
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The largest exercise since the Cold War will take place in Germany, Poland and the Baltic states. Steadfast Defender 24 is the overarching name for a series of around 18 different exercises taking place from mid-January to the end of May. The scenario involves a simulated rapid-onset conflict with a nearby adversary. The main objective is to practice NATO’s ability to reinforce Europe by moving troops across the Atlantic, from North America to Europe. Sweden will participate though its NATO membership has not yet been finalised. |
1 Feb 2024 |
Special European Council summit |
EU |
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EU leaders will discuss the revision of the EU’s long-term budget for 2021-27, including support to Ukraine. Due to the veto of one member state – Hungary – the EU failed to agree on a EUR 50bn financial support package for Ukraine at the European Council meeting in December 2023. Although a compromise agreement among all 27 member states is most likely, the EU has options to provide the necessary financial support to Ukraine despite Hungary’s potential veto. |
3 Feb 2024
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Democrat Presidential primary elections |
US
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President Joe Biden will formally appear on the ballot in South Carolina.
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4 Feb 2024
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General election
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El Salvador
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Current President Nayib Bukele and Vice President Felix Ulloa will run for re-election.
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7 Feb 2024
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Presidential election
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Azerbaijan
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President Ilham Aliyev has announced elections a year earlier than scheduled. He has been in power since 2003 and there are no term limits. A lack of transparency and Aliyev’s strong control of the political environment make his victory highly likely.
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8 Feb 2024
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Parliamentary elections
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Pakistan
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While polls could be postponed beyond the announced date due to limited institutional capacity, Control Risks assesses that elections remain likely to be held in early 2024. Allegations of vote rigging and electoral manipulation are likely during the polls. Provincial assembly elections in the four provinces of Sindh, Balochistan, Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa will be held alongside the general elections.
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12-14 Feb 2024 |
World Governments Summit
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UAE |
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The UAE’s alternative to the World Economic Forum’s Davos event will go ahead in Dubai. Global economic stability and trade, as well as peace-making, are likely to be key items on the agenda.
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14 Feb 2024
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Presidential election
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Indonesia
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The election will deliver a change in administration because President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo cannot stand again.
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16-18 Feb 2024
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Munich Security Conference (MSC)
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Global
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The MSC is an independent forum that brings together policymakers to discuss the more critical international security issues, including major conflicts and escalating threats.
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21-23 Feb 2024 |
G20 foreign ministers’ meeting
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Global |
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The meeting will take place in Rio de Janeiro (Brazil), with the focus likely on the Ukraine and Israel-Hamas conflict and their impacts.
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24 Feb 2024
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Anniversary of the start of the large-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine
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Ukraine
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This will mark two years since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
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25 Feb 2024
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Parliamentary and local elections
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Belarus
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Elections to the parliament and local councils at various levels will take place. Belarus will hold its first ever single voting day as envisaged in the updated constitution.
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25 Feb 2024
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Legislative elections |
Cambodia |
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The ruling Cambodian People’s Party (CPP) will likely remain in power and unchallenged.
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26-29 Feb 2024
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World Trade Organisation Ministerial Conference
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Global
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The most senior decision-making body of the WTO is the Ministerial Conference, which usually meets every two years. In 2024, it will be held in Abu Dhabi (UAE). It brings together all members of the WTO, all of which are countries or customs unions. The Ministerial Conference can take decisions on all matters under any of the multilateral trade agreements.
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28-29 Feb 2024 |
G20 finance ministers’ and central bankers’ meeting
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Global |
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The meeting will take place in Sao Paulo (Brazil) and will likely focus on elevated interest rates, and sustained cost of living pressures.
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March 2024
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Local elections
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Turkey
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The government has a strong chance of regaining control of the Istanbul metropolitan mayoralty, which it lost in 2019 to an opposition unity alliance for the first time since coming to power in 2002. A government victory will reinforce its momentum since its victory in the May 2023 general elections and will support ongoing reforms to redress economic imbalances and foster closer ties with the West.
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1 Mar 2024
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Legislative elections
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Iran
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These will be the first elections to take place since widespread protests in 2022. Political unrest could be organised by candidates (moderates and reformists) sidelined by the authorities in the weeks before the election.
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5 Mar 2024
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Super Tuesday
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US
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Approximately one-third of all delegates to the presidential nominating conventions can be won on Super Tuesday, more than on any other day. The results are therefore a strong indicator of the likely eventual nominee of each major political party.
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10 Mar 2024 |
Legislative elections |
Portugal |
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President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa on 9 November announced that he would dissolve parliament and hold elections in March 2024 following the 7 November resignation of Prime Minister Antonio Costa, who is under investigation for corruption.
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15-17 March 2024
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Presidential election
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Russia
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Incumbent President Vladimir Putin is highly likely to win re-election. The elections will be neither free nor fair, excluding genuine opposition candidates.
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23 Mar 2024 |
Presidential election |
Slovakia |
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If no candidate receives more than half of the votes, a second round between the two leading candidates will take place on 6 April.
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29 Mar 2024
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Day of the Young Combatant
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Chile
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The day commemorates the 1985 killings of two brothers by the police. Violent protests in Santiago and other cities traditionally occur on the day.
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April - May 2024
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General election
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India
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Prime Minister Narendra Modi is likely to secure a third consecutive term in office.
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April - May 2024
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Global AI Safety summit
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South Korea
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In November 2023, South Korea agreed to host the second global summit on AI Safety.
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10 Apr 2024
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Legislative elections
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South Korea
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The scheduled elections will be critical for the policy agenda of President Yoon, as the governing party currently holds a minority of seats in the legislature.
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11 Apr 2024 |
Expiry of IMF’s financial assistance programme |
Pakistan
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The USD 3bn Standby Agreement (SBA), which Pakistan secured in July, is scheduled to expire on 11 April. Following the expiry of the SBA, Pakistan will require a long-term financial assistance programme, one that an elected government will have the mandate to undertake.
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17-19 Apr 2024 |
G7 foreign ministers’ meeting
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Global |
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The meeting will take place in Capri (Italy), with the Israel-Hamas and Ukraine conflicts being high on the agenda.
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24 Apr 2024 |
Presidential elections
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North Macedonia
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The elections are taking place amid heightened political tensions, as well as against the backdrop of longstanding ethnic tensions between the country’s Albanian minority and Macedonian majority.
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28-30 Apr 2024 |
G7 climate, energy and environmental ministerial meeting |
Global |
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The meeting will take place in Torino (Italy) and will likely focus on energy security and climate goals.
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May 2024 |
General election
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South Africa
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General elections will be held by May 2024 to elect members of the 400-member National Assembly, as well as the nine provincial legislatures. The parliament will then select the president. The ruling African National Congress (ANC) is likely to remain in power through a slim majority or through a coalition with several smaller parties. President Cyril Ramaphosa is likely to be elected for a second term (until 2029 ).
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May 2024 |
Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) anniversary summit |
Europe |
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The EAEU will reportedly meet in Moscow (Russia) to hold a ten-year anniversary summit.
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2 May 2024 |
Local elections |
UK |
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Major urban areas, including London, Liverpool and Manchester, will hold mayoral elections.
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5 May 2024
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General election
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Panama
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President Laurentino Cortizo cannot seek re-election. Former President Ricardo Martinelli (2009-14) holds an extensive lead, despite substantial corruption allegations.
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19 May 2024
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General election
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Dominican Republic
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President Luis Abinader, from the Modern Revolutionary Party (PRM), will run for re-election.
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20 May 2024
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Presidential inauguration
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Taiwan
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The winner of the January presidential election from the incumbent Democratic Progressive Party, Lai Ching-te, will be inaugurated.
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21-24 May 2024
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Global Supply Chain Forum
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Global
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IIn Bridgetown (Barbados), government officials, business leaders and experts will attend an inaugural forum to discuss supply chain links to digitalisation, food security, transport costs, climate change, developing countries’ financing needs and how to better manage the energy transition in international transport.
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23-25 May 2024 |
G7 finance minsters meeting |
Global |
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The meeting will take place in Stresa (Italy).
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30-31 May 2024 |
AI for Good Summit |
Global |
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The summit will bring together governments, non-profit research institutions, corporations and international organisations to discuss how to navigate an age in which technology is advancing at an exponential, unprecedented rate.
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1 Jun 2024 |
OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) |
Global |
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The OPEC+ ministerial meeting is scheduled to meet to discuss adjusting production quotas.
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2 Jun 2024
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General election
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Mexico
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Incumbent President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) is term-limited. The main presidential candidates will be Claudia Sheinbaum (ruling party MORENA) and Xochitl Galvez (opposition party PAN).
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6-9 Jun 2024
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European Parliament elections
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EU
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Member states will hold elections for European Parliament representatives.
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13-15 Jun 2024 |
G7 leaders’ summit |
Global |
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The summit – held in Puglia (Italy) – will include the defence of Ukraine, the conflict between Israel-Hamas, and respect for international rules, economic and energy security, migration, and more equal partnership with Africa.
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28 Jun 2024 |
General election |
Mongolia |
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The incumbent Mongolian People’s Party (MPP) is likely to retain a majority in parliament. The elections will see parliament expanded from 76 members to 126, following constitutional amendments in June 2023.
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July 2024 |
Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) |
Asia/Europe |
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Kazakhstan will host the annual SCO summit in Astana. Belarus will reportedly join the organisation.
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1 Jul - 31 Dec 2024 |
Hungarian Council presidency |
EU |
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Hungary is due to take over the rotating presidency of the Council of the EU, despite ongoing tensions over its failure to comply with EU law
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9-11 Jul 2024 |
NATO summit |
Global |
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The 2024 summit will take place in Washington DC (US). Should Sweden become a member, it will be the first leaders’ summit that welcomes both Finland and Sweden.
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15 Jul 2024 |
General elections |
Rwanda |
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The government in March 2023 decided to synchronise the dates for its parliamentary and presidential elections. Long-time leader, President Paul Kagame, will stand.
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15-18 Jul 2024 |
US Republican Party National Convention |
US |
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Delegates in Milwaukee (Wisconsin state) will select the party’s nominees for president and vice-president in the 2024 US presidential election.
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16-17 Jul 2024 |
G7 trade ministers’ meeting |
Global |
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The meeting will take place in Villa San Giovanni in Reggio Calabria (Italy).
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26 Jul - 11 Aug 2024
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2024 Summer Olympics |
Global
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.The 2024 Summer Olympics will take place in Paris and other locations around France and in French overseas territories. |
19-22 Aug 2024
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US Democratic Party National Convention
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US
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Delegates in Chicago (Illinois state) will select the party’s nominees for president and vice-president in the 2024 US presidential election.
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1 Sep 2024 |
Provincial elections |
Germany |
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Saxony and Thuringia states are due to hold provincial elections.
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22 Sep 2024 |
Provincial elections |
Germany |
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Brandenberg state is due to hold provincial elections.
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22-23 Sep 2024
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Opening of the UN General Assembly/The UN Summit of the Future
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Global
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The summit aims to enhance cooperation on critical challenges and address gaps in global governance, reaffirm existing commitments including to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the United Nations Charter, and move towards a reinvigorated multilateral system.
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October 2024 |
Parliamentary elections |
Austria |
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The election must be held by the end of the five-year term of the current 27th National Council on 23 October.
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October 2024 |
BRICS summit |
Global |
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Russia will reportedly hold the summit in Kazan. It will be the first summit with expanded BRICS membership.
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7 Oct 2024 |
One-year anniversary of Hamas’ incursion into Israel |
Israel/Palestinian Territories
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The date marks the first anniversary since Hamas launched a large-scale attack and kidnap operation against Israel.
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9 Oct 2024 |
General election |
Mozambique |
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Uncertainty remains around the Frelimo presidential candidate for the 2024, as a clear successor to President Filipe Nyusi is yet to emerge.
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9-11 Oct 2024 |
G7 health ministers’ meeting |
Global |
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The meeting will take place in Ancona (Italy).
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13 Oct 2024 |
Legislative elections |
Lithuania |
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A government reshuffle before the scheduled elections cannot be ruled out, but any transitions are likely to be smooth.
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21 Oct - 1 Nov 2024 |
UN Convention on Biological Diversity (COP16) to the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) |
Global |
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Colombia will host COP16; the country has 10% of the planet’s biodiversity. In 2023, a progressive agreement was made to ensure critical conservation by 2030.
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26 Oct 2024 |
Legislative elections |
Georgia |
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There will be 150 seats up for election in a fully proportional electoral system with a 5% threshold for the first time. Russian influence in the country has increased in previous elections.
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27 Oct 2024
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General election
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Uruguay
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If no presidential candidate receives a majority in the first round of voting, a runoff will take place on 24 November 2024.
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November 2024 |
The 29th Conference of the Parties (COP29) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) |
Global |
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Baku will host COP29 after Azerbaijan’s selection as host after Russia vetoed any bid by an EU country.
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November 2024
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3rd Global AI Safety summit
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France
|
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In November 2023, France agreed to host a 3rd Global AI Safety summit.
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5 Nov 2024
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Presidential election
|
US
|
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President Joe Biden is running for a second term. Former president Donald Trump is the likely Republican party nominee.
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18-19 Nov 2024 |
G20 leaders’ summit |
Global |
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Brazil will host the G20 leaders’ summit in Rio de Janeiro.
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27 Nov 2024 |
Regional elections, including Jakarta |
Indonesia |
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Regional elections are scheduled, including to elect the Jakarta governor to a five-year term.
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December 2024
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South Africa ascends to G20 Presidency
|
Global
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South Africa will take over from Brazil.
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2-13 Dec 2024
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UNCCD Conference of Parties 16th session
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Global
|
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Saudi Arabia will host the UN Convention to Combat Desertification COP16 in Riyadh.
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7 Dec 2024
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General elections
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Ghana
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The opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC) and its presidential candidate former president John Dramani Mahama (2012-17) are likely to win the polls, defeating incumbent vice president Mahamadu Bawumia, who is the candidate of the ruling New Patriotic Party
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