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The US military operation in Venezuela vividly demonstrates the The New Rules – No Rules World set out in Control Risks’ RiskMap 2026, where geopolitical conduct is increasingly transactional, confrontational and detached from traditional norms.
Whether you see this as a new rules or no rules world, Control Risks has identified five principles or dynamics of the US intervention in Venezuela that will play out in this and other geopolitical flashpoints in 2026.
Military airstrikes paved the way for a targeted raid to capture a foreign leader. The operation was executed with force and precision – but without US Congressional approval or international consultation. US forces remain positioned near Venezuela as leverage over its government, amid threats of further military action. This advances the trend towards unilateral and pre-emptive military action substituting for diplomacy, and exposes companies to abrupt changes in stability and security. The rules of engagement are expansive – and changing.
US adversaries and allies alike viewed the US operation as a breach of Venezuelan sovereignty and violation of international law, underscoring how legal constraints are sidelined when strategic interests are at stake. Even if the pretext of an extraterritorial law enforcement operation carries water, we can expect more governments, in many contexts, to be willing to violate sovereignty to target national security threats abroad. Longstanding treaties and agreements might be depreciating assets under the new rules of geopolitics.
The US intends to “run” Venezuela by exerting leverage over its government and controlling Venezuelan oil production and exports. Democratization is not on the near-term agenda: the chavista power structure is set to remain in place for now, with a "process of reconciliation" and "democratic transition" as distant prospects. As Control Risks analysts noted in RiskMap 2026, “different political systems or values won't preclude cooperation on mutual interests” - but it remains unclear if the Venezuelan opposition will go along with this plan.
The new rules for Venezuela will be shaped by parts of the Venezuelan regime, para-military actors like the colectivos, regional militant and organized criminal groups, multinational oil companies, US military and intelligence agencies, regional neighbours like Colombia and Brazil, and foreign powers like Russia and China. Pragmatic partnerships might predominate, but recent history is full of power vacuums being filled by factional competition and civil conflict. The lines between the civil, criminal, and military worlds are increasingly blurred in a zero sum competition for power and resources.
US officials portrayed the Venezuela operation as a demonstration of US regional dominance under the so-called “Donroe Doctrine”. Other players like China, Russia, and Iran are now re-evaluating their positions in Latin America, but also the US’s commitment to deterrence and intervention elsewhere. Any signs that the US is pulling back from security pledges could encourage similar demonstrations of regional dominance by US adversaries.
Venezuela in 2026 exposes a world where old geopolitical frameworks are collapsing and new rules of military force, situational alliances, resource grabs, and norm-breaking are taking hold.
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