US policy and strategic risk in the Western Hemisphere

Venezuela — scenarios, escalation triggers and what organizations should do now

The US military action against Venezuela’s leadership has intensified speculation about regime change. Despite the operation’s precise execution, all likely scenarios point to increased instability and risk, rather than a smooth political transition.

This uncertainty is not confined to Venezuela. The US action signals intent to dominate the Western Hemisphere and Control Risks expects short-term instability across northern South America which could spread through the wider region. The breach of established norms regarding sovereignty and the use of force is straining international relations, including with US allies and could lead to disputes with multilateral organizations.

Additionally, Venezuela will become a focal point for competition between the US and other countries with interests in the region, notably China and Russia. This competition may escalate proxy conflicts and hybrid/ cyber operations.

How we support organizations globally

Our experts provide actionable insights and hands-on support to help organizations navigate the evolving geopolitical landscape

Monitoring and analysis of regional and global instability: understand the nature and trajectory of potential disruptions in Venezuela and across Latin America, including implications for energy markets and global supply chains.
Evaluating strategic and operational risks: analyze political risk, security implications, and market volatility to inform decision-making for organizations with interests in the Americas or energy sectors.
Scenario-based planning and crisis readiness: develop tailored strategies for immediate actions and future contingencies, including escalation triggers and potential spillover in Colombia, Brazil, Cuba and beyond.
Protecting people, assets, and data: implement robust contingency plans to safeguard personnel, infrastructure and digital assets against physical, political and cyber threats.
Evacuation and protective services: prepare for and execute evacuation plans where necessary, supported by comprehensive protective security.
Board and C-Suite briefings: ongoing support on geopolitical risk, security implications and digital risks for leadership teams navigating complex, fast-moving developments.
Scenario planning and horizon scanning: identify upcoming opportunities and risks, with clear escalation triggers and regional outlooks to help your organization stay ahead of the competition.

Speak to our experts to see how we can support your organization

US policy and strategic risk in the Americas

In this 45-minute webinar, we will examine the stability of the current interim government under Delcy Rodríguez and assess factors that could trigger a shift to different scenarios in the coming weeks.