Civil society groups in Kenya have called for nationwide anti-government protests on 7 July (known as “Saba Saba” or "Seven Seven" day) amid rising concerns about police brutality and the Kenya Kwanza government’s track record on governance. Protests and unrest are likely in the capital, Nairobi, as well as in Mombasa, Kisumu and Eldoret.
Businesses should expect operational disruption, which will likely include roadblocks along major transportation routes, disruption to telecommunications, and incidental security threats. The government will likely respond heavy-handedly to any protests.
Tensions remain high following 25 June protests
Kenyan President William Ruto had hoped that a comparatively dull 2025 Finance Bill would not draw public attention. In this year’s iteration, the administration has sought to avoid introducing taxes that would directly impact the cost of living – an issue that had directly led to an organic protest movement organised via social media in the 2024 budgeting period.
There is palpable anger against the government, and against Ruto specifically. The government has been widely accused of harassing, intimidating and arbitrarily detaining protesters and civil society activists.
On 25 June, protests took place in 23 of Kenya’s 47 counties despite the Inspector General of Police Douglas Kanja warning on 24 June that no protests were authorised. Schools and businesses in Nairobi remained closed on 25 June in expectation of the protests.
16 people were killed and more than 400 people injured in clashes between police and protesters, according to Amnesty International. On 25 June, the Communications Authority of Kenya (CAK) ordered local media to stop live coverage of protests. Tensions remain high.
A new rallying cry
Deputy Inspector General of Police Eliud Lagat on 16 June “stepped aside” pending an investigation into the death of Albert Ojwang, a political blogger, in police custody on 14 June. The incident has ignited localised protests in the capital Nairobi, with Ruto himself calling Ojwang’s family to express his condolences and contributing KES 2m (USD 15,500) toward his funeral costs.
Meanwhile, a video showing a police officer shooting a hawker selling masks during the 17 June protests over Ojwang’s killing was widely circulated in the media and on social media and has prompted further outrage and calls for reform.
Civil society activists and opposition leaders will likely use the latest incidents of police brutality to organise anti-government demonstrations in the coming month. Social media hashtags encouraging people to protest and urging for a “total shutdown” of the country to demand accountability for the killings circulated widely.
The president must tread a careful line. On one hand, he will need to show that he will take the human rights situation seriously and come out strongly against security forces’ excessive use of force. On the other hand, blaming the police entirely for the alleged abuses is tricky: Ruto will need their support to contain any unrest. There is also a widespread perception that security force abuses would not be taking place without direction or tacit support from Kenya Kwanza politicians, including from Ruto himself.
Fracturing alliances
The idea that Ruto should only serve one term as president, popularised by his now-impeached former deputy president (2022-24), Rigathi Gachagua, will continue to gain traction. Despite uncertainty over whether Gachagua can run for another term given his impeachment, his “wantam” (one-term) movement has inspired other politicians to call for young people to help vote Ruto and his administration out in the next general elections scheduled for 2027.
The administration’s poor reputation is putting strain on the Kenya Kwanza coalition and its partnership with the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM). The ODM has long been viewed as a champion of the ordinary Kenyan, and growing dissatisfaction with Kenya Kwanza’s tenure is prompting some within the party to question ODM's alliance with the coalition. On 15 June, Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna called for a review of the memorandum of understanding (MoU) signed between the ODM and Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA) party. Sifuna claimed that “…the only way to breathe life to that MoU is to bring back to life Albert and other youths”.
UDA and wider Kenya Kwanza coalition politicians have so far aligned with Ruto’s position on the police brutality issue, which is that this is a problem with individuals within the police rather than a systemic institutional issue. However, some may sense political vulnerability. Ruto will likely face challenges to his authority from within the ruling coalition, especially as individual politicians seek to position themselves ahead of 2027.
A tough sell
These dynamics will set up a battle for the youth vote in the coming months. Ruto will be keen to demonstrate his credentials on this front, with his recent speeches and programmes appearing geared toward that goal. A key example is the revival of the “Kazi Mtaani” (work in the neighbourhood) programme, which aims to employ 100,000 young people in labour-intensive work, including in the maintenance of roads and social infrastructure.
In the 2025-26 budget, Ruto reaffirmed the government’s commitment to social sectors, allocating the largest share of the budget to education and significant amounts to housing, agriculture and the creative economy. Ruto will hope that positive economic growth prospects – with the economy expected to grow by 4.5% in the coming year, according to the World Bank – and a decline in inflation will bolster his appeal.
While the statistics paint a more positive picture, the reality on the ground feels far gloomier. According to the Kenya National Bureau of Standards (KNBS), the majority of new jobs created in the past year have been in the informal sector, which is characterised by lower-paying roles and short-term contractual arrangements. Additionally, the large budgetary allocation to security will continue to fuel speculation that security forces will be used to further restrict the civic space.
2027 elections on the horizon
Politicking for the 2027 elections will begin to dominate politicians’ agendas prematurely in the coming months. The Kenya Kwanza coalition may become increasingly divided, particularly if the current government's plans and programmes fail to attract the interest of young people. There is already some scepticism about the flagship Kazi Mtaani programme, which would offer only short-term employment opportunities in lower-skilled roles. Should politicians increasingly view Ruto as a liability to their futures, they may vocally oppose the president in public and in the legislature. This would drive legislative and decision-making deadlocks and fuel bureaucratic delays for businesses.
The current political and socioeconomic climate also portends further civil unrest. We do not expect widespread unrest around the anniversary of the storming of parliament. However, the focus on the human rights record of the administration will likely prompt periodic and sizeable protests in major urban areas, particularly Nairobi. Despite the current scrutiny, state security forces remain likely to respond heavy-handedly to any unrest. Clashes between security forces and demonstrators will fuel localised operational disruption and incidental security threats to personnel in transit. Criminal groups will also take advantage of the protests to loot and vandalise property, particularly in the central business district of Nairobi.
Awareness of political, country and economic risks underpin your organisation’s ability to protect value and mitigate shocks. Learn how we can support your organisation.