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Businesses with operations in Bangladesh should begin preparing now for the next administration. For the first time since 2009, the country will have an elected government that is not led by the Awami League.
Although an exact date has yet to be announced, preparations by the election commission are already underway for February 2026. The announcement of a confirmed timeline for the poll has provided clarity to a political landscape that has been plagued by uncertainty since the forced resignation of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in August 2024. Even with a broad roadmap in place, the run-up to the election is likely to be bumpy.
The BNP’s path forward
The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) is currently the favourite to win the elections. With Hasina’s Awami League (AL) banned from contesting the elections, there is no other political party with a comparable support base and nationwide presence.
Out of power since 2006, and sensing an electoral triumph, the BNP is itching for polls to be held at the earliest, as a delay could strengthen its opponents or create a political vacuum that could increase the military’s power.
With clarity on the election timeline, the BNP will extend all possible support to the interim government to ensure no further derailments, as seen in the party’s decision to avoid any protests or demonstrations against the election commission’s ongoing efforts to demarcate new constituencies.
Shifting focus
The coming months will see the BNP refine and sharpen its policy agenda. It will offer broad policy continuity with an emphasis on economic diversification, infrastructure development, clean energy transition, boosting domestic production of natural gas, streamlining the regulatory landscape and promoting foreign investment.
The party will also seek to expand and diversify its support base to include both right-wing Islamists and various minority groups. It has also sought to mend its reputation, which has been marred by perceptions of corruption and indulgence.
The disruptors
Even as the BNP works with the interim government, both the Jamaat-e-Islami (Jamaat), a right-wing Islamist party, and the National Citizen Party (NCP), formed by student coordinators instrumental in Hasina’s resignation, will likely rally for elections to be delayed. This would allow more time for political reforms to be implemented and for both to intensify their grassroots activities and strengthen their support base.
For voters tired of the political dominance of the BNP and the Awami League, Jamaat and the NCP offer an alternative. Neither is currently in a position to take on the BNP or the military establishment alone. While an alliance between the two could pose a significant challenge to the BNP, no concrete steps have been taken in that direction.
The outsider
The Awami League, banned from all political activity since May 2025, is struggling to remain relevant. Amid a crackdown from the interim government and pushback from other political parties, its efforts to regroup have been stymied, and its capacity to cause large-scale disruptions remains limited. However, it retains a strong support base and debates about its legal status are far from over.
Its absence from the polls will likely cause unease. Factions within the military are still in favour of rehabilitating the party, and while the military has not sought to directly intervene on the matter, the interim government and political parties will have to carefully manage this stakeholder in the coming months.
The bumpy road ahead
The likelihood of elections being delayed is low. Despite the pressure from the NCP and the Jamaat, the BNP and the military remain influential stakeholders. Control Risks’ sources maintain that the Chief Advisor of Bangladesh's interim government, Muhammad Yunus, is keen to hand over power to an elected government at the earliest opportunity. A combination of these factors will make it difficult for the NCP and the Jamaat to prevail, although an election boycott by the NCP remains a possibility.
A spike in political violence is expected, as factions of political parties vie for relevance and remnants of the Awami League seek to disrupt the process. Although the military is tasked with maintaining law and order until elections are completed, the security landscape remains volatile.
Finally, the responsibilities of the interim government are likely to become increasingly limited in the coming months. While it will continue to discharge routine administrative tasks and focus on keeping the economy afloat, large-scale reforms that are not already underway are unlikely. According to Control Risks’ sources, government officials have been increasingly unwilling to pursue measures that could be opposed by the BNP.
What should companies and investors be doing?
The BNP is likely to be a different beast from its 2006 avatar. Identifying the key movers and shakers within the BNP is critical for stakeholders operating in the region. It is equally important to understand the party’s priorities for specific sectors and to assess the ability of different institutions to withstand political interference.
There is a real risk of political backlash from the BNP against local companies closely associated with the Hasina administration. Understanding the level of political exposure of local partners and the mitigation measures they have adopted should be a core part of any risk assessment undertaken by a foreign company with interests in Bangladesh.
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