Risers and Fallers in RiskMap 2021

Italy

• Security risk in southern Italy now matches the rest of the country and is rated Low. For a long time, we had judged the security risk posed by Mafia groups in the south to pose an elevated level of security risk to business. Recent improvements in state capacity and a drop in Mafia-related violence mean the Medium rating is no longer justified. Political risk across Italy remains at Medium.

India

• Our political risk rating for India is now Medium. This is stems from our revision of the contract risk sub-rating to Medium from Low. That change now means three of our five political risk sub-ratings (regulatory, integrity and contract risks) are Medium, triggering the overall rating change. The political stability and sovereign risk sub-ratings remain Low.

Nepal

• In politics, our risk rating goes to High from Medium, amid deteriorating political stability among conflicting political factions. Security risk in Nepal drops to Low from Medium, as the country’s long-running insurgency challenges flatten in the wake of the transition from a monarchy to a republic.

Belarus

• Belarus will remain a focal point of political and security risk in 2021. The civil unrest in response to rigged presidential elections in 2020 will continue for the foreseeable future. That means security risk in Belarus is now Medium, up from Low. A state that was once successful in supressing most forms of public protests is now immersed in it and is resorting to brutality in response. This is a cycle with no immediate end.

Burkina Faso

• Burkina Faso will have five provinces this year that move to High security risk, from Medium. The security situation in Soum, Loroum, Oudalan, Seno and Yagha provinces deteriorated in 2020; our West Africa analyst believes this will remain the case in 2021.

Mali

• Political risk across Mali will jump to High from Medium following a military coup. 2021 will bring a volatile transition period to Mali, a country already confronting considerable security challenges in some of its regions.

Chile

• Political risk in Chile rises to Medium from Low in 2021. President Sebastían Piñera’s persistent political weakness becomes an increasing liability in the face of the country’s upcoming constitution-making process, itself a source of instability.

Ecuador

• In Ecuador, political risk drops to Medium from High considering President Lenín Moreno’s institutional reforms to improve accountability and democracy. Moreno has rolled back many of the changes wrought by his predecessor, Rafael Correa, who damaged Ecuador’s political institutions.