CEO View

The world is our market, but the world has changed and so must risk management 

RiskMap 2026 | Nick Allan | Chief Executive Officer

The world has fundamentally changed. To operate successfully in 2026, businesses must learn the new rules fast or risk missing the opportunities and the existential threats.

Writing in Control Risks’ 50th anniversary year, I’m reminded that 1975 also saw the release of Jaws, one of cinema’s greatest contributions to the art of risk management. The people of Amity Island eventually worked through that scenario, though mistakes were made. Jaws 2 came with the strapline “Just when you thought it was safe to go back into the water,” which seems apt as we look forward into 2026. For business, the past year has been one of navigating geopolitical and economic shocks, rewriting strategy and building tactical resilience. This experience and preparation will be invaluable over the coming year, for in 2026 the protagonists and lines of competition might be familiar, but the storyline will not. The US tariff policy has upended global trade structures with limited regard for traditional allies. Few people were predicting the clash between Canada and the USA although a frustration with EU trade policy, NATO spending and general perceived protectionism were more predictable. For business, the moving nature of trade rules has been particularly hard to navigate and has held back cross-border investments. There are winners and losers, certainly in the shorter term, but it is hard to argue that the US has not been successful in resetting trade relations in its favour.

On the geopolitical front, the era of realpolitik is now well established. Old alliances are probably more durable than they might appear but there is no question that deal making, self-interest and pressure tactics are the preferred tools of diplomacy and will remain so. The US, as the key international actor, has not succeeded in withdrawing from the global stage and has appeared indispensable in many places, not least the Middle East.

But what has been notable this past year have been the remarkably resilient stock markets and the non-occurrence of many economic doomsday forecasts. The old orthodoxy that liberal market capitalism is the best route towards national wealth and political stability is now widely challenged. Populism and nationalism are well entrenched across the world. This is having a profound impact on the business environment in a number of ways.

Firstly, geopolitical tensions are baked into future strategic plans. This is affecting supply chain planning, research and development, and innovation. The battle for technology supremacy around artificial intelligence in particular will heat up in 2026. For companies, technology choices, whether hardware or software, come with a geopolitical flavour in a world split into multiple competing technology orbits. Similar decisions are being made across many other aspects of supply chains as firms try to balance the wish for efficiency against resilience.

Secondly, markets once seen as stable, secure and understood are now none of those. Political turmoil in France, for example, will roll through 2026 and into 2027. Expect significant changes in the tax and regulatory environments. Anti-immigration rhetoric and policy across political spectrums is already affecting the ability of firms to hire or move their best talent. Local political sensitivities are making global firms reconsider global standards and positions as neutrality becomes harder to maintain.

Thirdly, the political weaponisation of regulations at the national level is exposing businesses to significant and unforeseen risk. This is in contrast to a general trend where governments, most notably in the US but in other major markets such as Brazil, are easing back on the prosecution of investigations around integrity or even regulatory breaches. Where 2026 will be different again will be as an important proving ground for unresolved issues relating to data ownership and copyright in the fast evolving AI world.

Where conflict is increasing, albeit often unclaimed, is in the digital domain. With all the work we do in this area around threat intelligence and responding to cyber attacks we see a very clear correlation between attacks on business and geopolitical tensions. AI powered tools are making attacks easier for criminals and nation states and businesses need to focus on two important areas. Firstly, to understand that their deemed nationality or importance to a particular economy may well make them a target, irrespective of whether they are politically engaged or not, and secondly to make sure that they are not an easy target. Many of the most high profile criminal attacks are successful due to basic failures in information security risk management.

The shoal of risks that businesses have been swimming through over the past five years has certainly seen organisations develop resilience and adaptability. Indeed, many of the events that happen today would have been seen as terminal for economic stability only a decade or so ago. But, as Amity’s Mayor Larry Vaughan might say, the challenge in 2026 is spotting the shark in a sea of barracudas.  Risk management has always aspired to be a business enabler, and this must be doctrine for the year ahead. The world will not go back to how it was, but there will be some constants amidst the fluidity.

Most importantly, the US will continue to pursue a narrower self-interest and the containment of Chinese power. The relationship is too important to both sides for it to break down completely, but it will be strained, with China ever more prepared to use its own power overtly. Secondly, political polarisation persists and almost all countries are susceptible to dramatic swings in power. Do not rely too heavily on the promises of any government much beyond the short-term. Thirdly, shifting supply chains and ever more localisation present risks, but also potential benefits.

It is not going to be easy out there in 2026. The truth for the people of Amity Island is that sharks will always be there, but Amity is a seaside town and people can’t stay on the shore forever. So it is for international business: the world is our market and it’s where we belong.