This article is based on content originally published on our partner platform Seerist, the augmented analytics solution for threat and risk intelligence professionals.
Geopolitical turbulence is set to be the dominant force shaping the mining and metals markets in 2025.
1. Mineral supply chains continue their path to fragmentation
Geopolitical tensions are increasingly leading nations to secure access to critical resources and reduce their dependence on China. The result will be less a neat decoupling of mineral supply chains and more a messy patchwork of bilateral deals, export restrictions, import tariffs and direct state purchases to increase stockpiles of critical minerals. These likely developments will weigh on product availability, causing wild swings in certain markets. Combined with rapid technological advancements, these changes will make it more difficult for project developers to raise capital on the back of unreliable price and offtake projections. This will favour more vertically integrated operators.
Until now, China has asserted its dominance in critical minerals with calculated precision, imposing subtle forms of restrictions on little-known critical minerals, most recently prohibiting the export of “dual-use” minerals gallium and germanium to the US in December 2024. An escalating trade war between China and the Trump administration could see Beijing embrace higher-profile options where it also has a chokepoint, such as processed cobalt or lithium. China’s Ministry of Commerce in January clearly signalled this, announcing an intent to add lithium processing and refining technologies to its list of controlled items. That would mean conditional exports only and probably close down various mooted partnerships or technology licensing deals between leading Chinese battery firms and Western aspirants. The US could also adopt higher tariffs on certain sensitive minerals, as it already did for Chinese chromium and tantalite in the last year in an attempt to reduce reliance on China.
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2. America First reaches the mineral sector
The Biden administration’s efforts to lead a multilateral mineral coalition, the Minerals Security Partnership, will give way to a more muscular America First mining diplomacy under Trump. Forget about “friendshoring”, the new administration will be squarely focused on reshoring processing facilities on US soil and, as part of its rollback of Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act will likely unwind existing policy support for mines in US free trade agreement partners. Canada and Australia have the most to lose from reduced US interest in funding such third-country projects, and from US tariffs on all imported minerals. This inward-looking US agenda will also accelerate the scramble by European countries, Japan and South Korea to seek their own supply deals with Latin America or parts of Africa.
3. The Gulf doubles down on mining
Riyadh’s Future Minerals Forum, in its fourth year only, has already cemented its place in the global calendar of mining events, highlighting the Gulf’s major ambitions in the field. As geopolitical tensions put up investment barriers elsewhere, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar will leverage their “neutral” status and substantial financial resources to become global mining players.
After Saudi Arabia’s acquisition of a 10% stake in Vale Base Metals in 2024, expect further high-profile deals to be financed from Riyadh, Abu Dhabi or Doha this year. Saudi’s corporate giants Saudi Aramco and Ma’aden have just announced an upcoming joint venture (JV) to start lithium production in the Kingdom by 2027. The Kingdom is also considering acquiring a 10% stake in the Reko Diq project in Pakistan through Manara Minerals Investment Co., a Saudi firm backed by the country’s sovereign wealth fund. If this transpires, Riyadh would join Barrick Gold and the Pakistan government in the copper and gold mining project with the first ore expected to move in 2028.
The three countries will encourage both investment in new mines, and acquisitions or project developments that can feed an emerging mineral processing and electric vehicle (EV) manufacturing industry in the region. This could be good news for frontier mining markets, particularly in Africa, where financing from the Gulf capital could provide a viable alternative to risk-averse US or EU investors.
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4. Political volatility jeopardises the EU’s critical minerals ambitions
Europe is likely to experience significant political turbulence in the next year, not least as the Trump presidency will prove difficult for many European countries to manoeuvre. With Germany facing an election on 23 February and France’s government at a critical juncture, two key actors at the European level are preoccupied with domestic political issues. Uncertainty over the composition of Germany’s next government – and its policy priorities – and French political deadlock and budget constraints will likely hinder EU policymaking due to an increasingly divided European Council. Furthermore, the combination of a lack of leadership from the EU’s two largest economies and conflicting priorities among member states more generally is likely to delay the implementation of the bloc's critical mineral strategies and prevent cohesive policy support to de-risk investment and mobilise capital for mining investment.
Political instability could also affect mining projects and exploration in key upstream markets. The Sahel is prone to experience further military coups in 2025 amid the continued advance of Islamist militant groups. We also flag a risk of instability in lithium-rich Zimbabwe, where the president is gearing up to extend his term in power; and in Congo (DRC), where a constitutional revision could stir discontent in the copper and cobalt regions. Elections will also take place in key or emerging mining markets, including Chile, Côte d’Ivoire, Tanzania and the Philippines.
5. A wave of resource nationalism fuels boom in litigation
Another consequence of a more insular world is the comeback of resource nationalism across many frontier and emerging economies. This ranges from conventional, legislative forms of pressure – fiscal reforms pushing for greater government take from the mining industry (including in Mexico) – to more radical measures such as hostage-taking of mining executives (as seen recently in the Sahel) or price controls. In Indonesia, the new administration of President Prabowo Subianto could curtail the supply of nickel to prop up prices but would struggle to exert control over large sections of the mining industry. Congo (DRC) authorities are also exploring the introduction of similar export quotas. Disputes over contract terms and regulatory changes could lead to a spike in arbitration cases, with companies seeking to recover losses from nationalisation or retroactive taxation.
6. Regulatory scrutiny raises the bar for mining mergers and acquisitions
Conditions for big dealmaking in the mining sector will remain underwhelming in 2025, weighed down by high interest rates and reticent state support across much of the West. The main exception will be gold, where high prices (up 30% since the beginning of 2024) and declining reserves will likely spur a wave of M&A by larger-cap companies. Given its centrality in the energy transition, copper is also likely to see the greatest M&A activity among critical minerals, as illustrated by the failed attempt by BHP to acquire Anglo American’s copper portfolio. Iron ore prices will likely remain underwhelming compared with the vertiginous highs of a few years ago, as China aims to sustain high steel production levels.
Regulatory hurdles will play a role in curtailing dealmaking, and favouring smaller, low-risk transactions over large-scale mergers spanning large numbers of jurisdictions. Governments are intensifying their scrutiny of mining transactions, particularly those involving critical minerals. Companies may increasingly turn to JVs and strategic partnerships to achieve their goals while mitigating regulatory and financial risks.
7. Tighter ESG compliance requirements meet laxer enforcement
Deep-reaching regulation will come into over 2025 and beyond, which will prove a growing compliance and due diligence burden for upstream operators and downstream buyers alike. Laws such as the Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive (CSDDD) – notwithstanding the risk of watering down the regulation via the proposed CSDDD, Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD) and Taxonomy Regulation omnibus – the Critical Raw Materials Act (CRMA), EU Deforestation Regulation will come into force from this year. Furthermore, we expect growing civil society pressure on the EU Conflict Minerals Regulation following a recent lawsuit filed by the Democratic Republic of Congo against tech giant Apple.
We are also seeing renewed efforts to consolidate mining assurance and traceability standards. The well-heeled push toward the Consolidated Mining Standard Initiative, which will be refined and likely operational in 2025, is yet another standard for operators to consider. While consolidation will be much welcomed in the industry to simplify existing mining standards, there are legitimate concerns about whether this may in fact result in a downgrade from existing schemes such as the Initiative for Responsible Mining Assurance.
However, growing ESG backlash has forced mining companies and sustainability professionals to adapt. The backtracking on some sustainability – including decarbonisation - targets by governments and multinationals will drive increased pressure by civil society on high impact sectors, including mining. It remains to be seen whether governments and regulators will put their money where their mouth is in terms of enforcement by investigating and prosecuting severe violations.
8. Nuclear resurgence drives uranium interest
The International Energy Agency (IEA) expects generation from nuclear energy to reach record levels in 2025, as countries increasingly embrace nuclear technology as a low-emissions source of baseload power. U3O8 prices reflect some of the best market conditions in more than a decade, moving several projects down the cost curve globally. The improved market environment is supported by both a state-led and private sector push: 40 countries have plans to expand nuclear energy in their energy systems, while a growing number of technology companies are exploring nuclear to feed their power-hungry AI processing needs. This, in turn, is reviving interest in securing uranium and diversifying supply sources, which are currently heavily concentrated in four countries – Kazakhstan, Canada, Namibia and Australia. The world’s largest producer of uranium, Kazakhstan, will remain a cornerstone of global supply in 2025.
Namibia, the fourth-largest uranium producer, is gaining increased attention due to its stable political environment and investor-friendly mining policies. The country is attracting Chinese investment, particularly in expanding operations at the Husab and Rössing mines. However, Namibia’s dependency on Chinese capital could raise concerns among Western nations seeking to diversify their uranium supply chains. Elsewhere in Africa, Niger will likely complete its divorce with French producer Orano in 2025 as it pivots towards Russian partners; Mauritania will likely become the next frontier producer with the final investment decision on a new project expected by mid-2025.
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9. AI breakthroughs and pitfalls
The AI revolution is the most significant technological trend likely to impact mining in the coming years. Use cases are likely to become increasingly diverse as additional breakthroughs from adjacent sectors are adapted into mining, from improving site safety conditions to processing geological data, optimising extraction and conducting environmental monitoring.
AI and mechanisation will lower operational costs by reducing labour-intensive processes and optimising energy consumption. But workforce displacement is set to become an increasingly significant issue to fuel tensions between mining companies and labour unions, particularly in well-established mining regions in emerging markets, where mining still provides critical employment.
As AI technologies evolve rapidly, in-house expertise will be required to reduce risk including operational failures, security breaches or inefficiencies. Without experts to assess and integrate AI effectively, companies may implement incompatible or insecure solutions. Companies must consider technical trade compliance when deploying AI systems, especially if the technology involves cross-border data transfer or international partnerships. Adherence to export controls, sanctions and other trade restrictions is also essential to mitigate the risk of violating trade laws and facing penalties or restrictions.
10. Make mining shine again
Finally, the mining industry will once again grapple with a more existential challenge – how to make itself attractive to young graduates, financiers and the wider public, and overcome the image problem that continues to affect the sector. Success in reshaping this narrative is critical for the sector’s ability to attract the skills and capital required to meet increasing demand for the minerals driving the energy transition and technological innovation.
Mining degree enrolments have dropped sharply in recent years across Canada and Australia. 40% of mining employers surveyed by the World Economic Forum (WEF) in 2024 expected that “an inability to attract talent” would hinder their organisational transformation. The resulting talent gap is particularly acute in fields like AI, robotics and sustainability, which are crucial to the industry's future.
Meanwhile, the reputational risks associated with the sector’s historical practices continue to deter many fund managers. The Global Commission on Mining 2030, a global coalition established in 2023, will ramp up initiatives in 2025 to address these perceptions and realise a more socially and environmentally responsible mining sector. The coming year will also see progress towards the adoption of a Consolidated Mining Standard on responsible mining practices. None of these initiatives will be immediately transformational but could gradually bring the financial sector onboard.