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Delivering Growth and Opportunity

Strategy and Deal Origination

 

Strategy and Deal Origination

Control Risks’ political risk consulting and analysis and intelligence capabilities give private market investors and corporates the information they need to move forward with confidence. Our services provide support for the development and testing of investment strategies, the selection of an approach to origination, and initial assessments of new targets and opportunities.

 

Strategy and scenario planning workshops

We live in a time when many long-held assumptions about politics, society and technology are being challenged. Through strategy and scenario planning workshops, we help you shape long term planning and make measured, tested adjustments:


  • Develop and map alternative key risk issues and scenarios for a specific sector or technological development
  • "Red team” or stress test assumptions that underpin investment strategies and perceptions of risk in your organization
  • Consider the political and regulatory outlook for countries, with an eye on policy shifts that might unlock opportunities

Research and intelligence to inform origination

Our network of contacts and global access to information allows us to support origination efforts in a variety of ways, particularly when your ability to travel is limited, or when you are considering less familiar markets. We help you:


  • Focus your origination strategy by developing a long list of potential targets based on your investment criteria – sector, ownership structure, commercial profile and investment size – and then by narrowing this down to a shortlist of priority targets through further intelligence gathering and analysis
  • Prioritise research, questions and talking points during the origination process through ongoing monitoring or tailored briefings

 

Distressed opportunities 

The process of acquiring or lending to distressed companies or assets can be tricky to navigate. Our experts help you evaluate which sectors or companies are likely to require financial support as a result of policy changes, or which may be vulnerable to losing government support during an economic downturn.

We also help you consider a cluster of distressed opportunities, such as your own existing portfolio or a portfolio of non-performing loans (NPLs). We can conduct due diligence on individual borrowers or apply data analytics to evaluate the portfolio against a set of criteria we determine with you.


Case studies

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Assessment and monitoring of risks across an extractives portfolio

A private equity firm with an expanding portfolio of assets in the extractives sector across multiple regions was seeking to apply greater consistency in various areas: the evaluation and integration of new assets, risk benchmarking, and ongoing risk monitoring.

Case study

Assessment and monitoring of risks across an extractives portfolio
The situation

A private equity firm with an expanding portfolio of assets in the extractives sector across multiple regions was seeking to apply greater consistency in various areas: the evaluation and integration of new assets, risk benchmarking, and ongoing risk monitoring. 
 

Our approach

We undertook an assessment of the firm and found that their existing feed of country risk data covered key risk factors broadly but was not sufficiently tailored at the asset level. The firm’s increasing number of assets and need to monitor on an on-going basis would require automation to pull data, though relevance to and impact on the portfolio would still call for expert assessment. 
 

The outcome

Through our support, the firm is now running a focused portfolio monitoring approach that combines the best of current automated data capture with expert country analysis inputs. This has allowed the firm to consistently identify “red flags” earlier in the acquisition process and focus its diligence activities on the most notable risks to each new asset at an earlier stage. 

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Global scenario building for an infrastructure fund

An infrastructure fund’s senior leadership was seeking to reassess emerging risks over the next five years that took into consideration the disruption caused by COVID-19.

Case study

Global scenario building for an infrastructure fund
The situation

An infrastructure fund’s senior leadership was seeking to reassess emerging risks over the next five years that took into consideration the disruption caused by COVID-19.
 

Our approach

We delivered a detailed evaluation of key political, economic, regulatory, social, technological and security risk drivers, identifying critical uncertainties specific to the fund. Through an interactive virtual workshop with senior leaders, we developed three highly nuanced scenarios for the fund’s five-year outlook.
 

The outcome

Using our most likely scenario, the client revised its baseline risk register. The client also developed two alternative risk registers based on the other two scenarios from the workshop. The reassessment gave the fund’s senior leadership more confidence about its understanding and management of emerging risks over the next five years, which gave them greater comfort to pursue new opportunities.

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Our thinking

Saudi Arabia will push ahead with economic diversification despite COVID-19

Analysis

Saudi Arabia will push ahead with economic diversification despite COVID-19

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic will complicate the country’s economic diversification programme largely due to the drop in government revenue from oil sales, highlighting the need to accelerate economic diversification. In order to sustain funding for mega-projects while maintaining a low-risk sovereign profile, the government will seek to revive privatisation plans of state-owned assets, such as utilities companies and transport hubs, in the coming years.
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