Threats against public officials, especially during election campaigns, are increasing worldwide. Assassinations of politicians, dissidents, reporters, and activists are more common. Corporate positions drive targeted threats to offices, stores, and employees. Societies increasingly expect – and even encourage – using violence to gain power and settle scores.
Four global factors will contribute to political violence in 2025:
- Geopolitical rivalry will continue to undermine counter-terrorism cooperation and stymie solutions to regional conflicts. This will sustain permissive operating spaces and safe havens in fragile states as launchpads for regional and global terrorism.
- Political polarisation will continue to justify and normalise violence against political and social “enemies” – potentially including companies perceived as aligned or allied with particular factions or causes.
- Online radicalisation fuelled by disinformation, conspiracy theories, and propaganda incitement will inspire and motivate unpredictable acts of individual political violence. Threats will periodically “go viral” against organisations singled out on social media for their social or political positions.
- Emerging technologies – like low-cost drones and 3D-printed firearms – will enable physical attacks against a wider range of assets and locations. Encrypted messaging platforms and generative AI will also facilitate non-violent but disruptive threats, like harassing communications and hoax bomb threats.
We expect these factors to drive several political violence trends in 2025:
Islamist extremist regrouping
The global threat from Islamist extremist groups is likely to increase in 2025. The most significant factor in 2025 – and a generational threat – is the radicalising impact of wars in Gaza and Lebanon on regional militant groups and homegrown extremists. Meanwhile, Islamic State (IS) is regrouping in Syria and Iraq, where the looming drawdown of US forces is likely to remove a key source of counter-terrorism pressure. Meanwhile, Islamist extremist groups affiliated with both IS and al-Qaida are active throughout the Sahel region, exploiting local grievances and filling voids left by weak governments and ineffective militaries. Ongoing conflicts in Afghanistan, Yemen, Somalia, and Libya will continue to incubate and provide safe havens for Islamist extremist groups.
State-sponsored attacks
International impunity and strongman politics are normalising state-sponsored attacks. The long-standing taboo against assassination is breaking down. Multiple governments stand accused of killing or trying to kill dissidents, political opponents and public officials abroad in recent years, either directly or through proxies. More are also carrying out the targeted killings of terrorists and other state enemies on grounds of self-defence and national security. Escalation of global conflict in 2025 would increase the intent of states to target their enemies abroad.
Right-wing resurgence
Rising geopolitical stakes in 2025 will reinforce exclusionary nationalism at the heart of right-wing movements worldwide. Right-wing groups have gained ground by trading on cultural grievance, economic insecurity and social dislocation.
Personalised violence
Violent lone actors will continue to pose unique security challenges in 2025. Geopolitical, economic, environmental and social crises –amplified if not simply manufactured online – will carve new radicalisation pathways. Increasingly sophisticated influence operations will try to exploit and expand social and political fractures. Ideological principles and personal grievances will remix in unexpected and often unanticipated ways, making it difficult to detect and prevent violent attacks.
What it means for business
Even when it’s not directed against companies, political violence negatively impacts the business landscape. It undermines political stability, enables organised crime, triggers social unrest and dents investor appetite.
Companies must be aware of the risk of sudden destabilisation of the political environment, and for the potential of individual acts of political violence to trigger broader social unrest.
In addition, the increasing intent of governments to target their opponents abroad turns political violence into a geopolitical risk. Companies may be forced to react to abrupt deteriorations in bilateral relationships that spiral into regulatory and reputational risks.
