Geopolitical Calendar

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Date	Event	Location
3 Jan 2026	The sixth anniversary of the US’s killing of Iran’s Gen Qasem Soleimani	Global
The sixth anniversary of the killing of Iran’s Gen Qasem Soleimani on 3 January will likely drive elevated intent by Islamist extremists to increase propaganda output to inspire attacks.
11 Jan 2026	Parliamentary elections	Benin
The ruling coalition and Romuald Wadagni, current minister of state for Finance and Cooperation and Talon’s designated successor, are likely to win.
15 Jan 2026	Presidential election	Uganda
President Yoweri Museveni and the ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM) party will likely win the elections given their control over state institutions.
18 Jan 2026	Presidential election	Portugal
President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, who cannot run again, has indicated that he will schedule the election for this date but it is not yet confirmed. The president is elected for a five-year term with a two-term limit, has the discretionary power to dissolve parliament and presides over the consultative Council of State.
19-23 Jan 2026	World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos (Switzerland)	Global
World leaders from government, business, civil society and academia will convene in Davos to hold discussions on the following themes: cooperation in a contested world, unlocking new sources of growth, investing in people, deploying innovation responsibly, and building prosperity within planetary boundaries.
1 Feb 2026	Presidential elections	Costa Rica
If no presidential candidate secures more than 40% of the valid votes after the first round, a run-off between the top two contenders will be held on 5 April 2026. Given that the campaign will unfold amid high levels of polarisation and widespread public disillusionment, this second round is highly likely.
2-3 Feb 2026	Space Summit 2026	Global
This is a new event to be held in Singapore in conjunction with the biannual Singapore Airshow. This summit will feature discussions on critical infrastructure, Earth observation for environmental sustainability, and the growth of the Asia-Pacific space sector.
4 Feb 2026	New START Treaty expiration	Russia, US
When New START expires, the US and Russia will face a future without any legally binding restrictions on their nuclear forces.
6-22 Feb 2026	The Milano Cortina 2026 Olympic Winter Games	Global
The international multi-sport event will take place at sites across Lombardy and Northeast Italy.
8 Feb 2026	General elections	Thailand
The formation of a government after the polls is likely to take several months amid complex coalition discussions.
12 Feb 2026	General elections	Bangladesh
The Bangladesh Nationalist Party is widely expected to win and form the next government. The two other prominent parties in the running are the National Citizen Party and Islamist party Jamaat-e-Islami.
17 Feb-19 Mar 2026	Islamic holy month of Ramadan	Global
Ramadan typically coincides with an uptick in attacks, often following exhortations from groups including Islamic State (IS), al-Qaida and their affiliates, in hotspot regions such as sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, the Middle East and North Africa.
21-22 Feb 2026	Africa Union Summit	Africa
The 39th Ordinary Session of the Assembly of the African Union (Heads of State and Government) will be held at the AU headquarters in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. African leaders will address key continental issues such as peace and security, economic development, and the AU’s institutional agenda.
24 Feb 2026	Fourth anniversary of Russia’s invasion into Ukraine	Ukraine, Russia
The anniversary marks the fourth year of Russia’s actions in Ukraine.
5 Mar 2026	General election	Nepal
While established parties will campaign on reforms and anti-corruption, they face challenges from newer parties and pro-monarchy sentiments.
6-15 Mar 202	The Paralympic Winter Games	Global
The international multi-sport event will take place at sites across Lombardy and Northeast Italy.
8 Mar 2026	General election	Colombia
The left-leaning Historic Pact coalition is expected to reach the run-off, though projections indicate they will likely lose to a more moderate or right-wing candidate.
15 Mar 2026	General election	Vietnam
The members of the National Assembly are elected from 184 multi-member constituencies using the two-round system, with a maximum number of 500 candidates to be elected.
26-29 Mar 2026	World Trade Organization Ministerial Conference	Global
The biannual WTO ministerial conference will take place in Yaoundé (Cameroon) during which trade ministers from around the world review the state of the multilateral trading system.
29 Mar-5 Apr 2026	Christian Easter holiday	Global
In predominantly Christian countries, Holy Week often brings public holidays and community events. The Christian Easter holiday is not generally associated with elevated violent extremist threats, though attacks have targeted religious services in some countries in the past, such as Sri Lanka in 2019.
12 Apr 2026	Presidential elections	Benin
The ruling coalition and Romuald Wadagni, current minister of state for Finance and Cooperation and Talon’s designated successor, is likely to win.
12 Apr 2026	Legislative elections	Hungary
The elections are expected to be a closely contested race between the ruling Hungarian Civic Alliance (Fidesz) and the centrist Respect and Freedom Party (Tisza).
12 Apr 2026	General election	Peru
Peru in March 2024 enacted legislation to re-create a bicameral legislature of 130 members in the lower house and 60 members in the Senate. The Senate was abolished in Peru's 1993 constitution. President Dina Boluarte was impeached and removed from office in October 2025 following allegations of corruption and human rights abuses. She was replaced by legislative leader Jose Jeri.
13-19 Apr 2026	IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings	Global
Finance ministers, central bank governors, and other officials from around the world will gather in Washington DC. These meetings feature discussions on the global economic outlook, financial stability, development, and policies to address economic challenges.
22 Apr 2026	Parliamentary elections	Laos
The National Assembly will subsequently elect the prime minister, president, and other top leaders. Prime Minister Sonexay Siphandone is expected to complete his term, but his prospects for reappointment are diminishing.
27 Apr-22 May 2026	The 2026 Review Conference of the Parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons	Global
The 2026 Review at the UN Headquarters in New York (US) and will provide an indication on international perspectives on non-proliferation.
1 Jun 2026	General elections	Ethiopia
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is highly likely to win the 2026 Ethiopian election and remain in office, with his ruling Prosperity Party expected to retain its parliamentary majority.
7 Jun 2026	Parliamentary election	Armenia
Foreign and domestic policy will significantly impact the electoral campaign.
11 Jun-19 Jul 2026	FIFA World Cup	US, Canada, Mexico
It will be jointly hosted by sixteen cities - eleven in the US, three in Mexico, and two in Canada. The tournament will be the first to be hosted by three nations.
14-16 Jun 2026	G7 Leaders Summit	Global
France will host the 52nd G7 Summit in the resort town of Évian-les-Bains, Haute-Savoie. Leaders of the G7 countries (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the UK, the US, plus the EU) will meet to discuss global economic conditions, international security, climate and development issues, and other shared priorities.
7-8 July 2026	NATO Summit	Global
The 2026 NATO Summit will take place in Ankara, (Turkiye). Heads of state and government of the 31 NATO member countries will gather to review and direct the Alliance’s policies.
July 2026	G20 Foreign Ministers Meeting	Global
The G20 foreign ministers will reportedly gather in Chicago. This meeting (the only G20 foreign ministers’ session planned before the G20 Summit) is set to address global security challenges and geopolitical crises.
11 Sep 2026	Anniversary of the al-Qaida attacks on New York City (US) in 2001	Global
The anniversary will likely drive an uptick in Islamist extremist propaganda.
13 Sep 2026	General elections	Sweden
General elections will elect the 349 members of the Riksdag.
22-29 Sep 2026	UN General Assembly	Global
The 81st Session of the UN General Assembly will hold its high-level General Debate in New York City, with world leaders gathering from around 22 September 2026.
4 Oct 2026	General election	Brazil
Current President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva leads against potential far-right candidates – however, challenges to his candidacy will persist.
12-18 Oct 2026	IMF and World Bank Annual Meetings	Global
The 2026 Annual Meetings will be held in Bangkok (Thailand). Key topics will include economic growth, financial stability, poverty reduction, climate finance, and other global development priorities.
27 Oct 2026	Legislative elections	Israel
Legislative elections will elect the 120 members of the twenty-sixth Knesset.
3 Nov 2026	Off-cycle state, congressional and gubernatorial elections	US
The 2026 US midterm elections will elect all members of the House of Representatives (lower house), one third of the Senate (upper house), governors in 36 US states, and over 6,000 state legislative seats.
9-20 Nov 2026	Conference of the Parties (COP31)	Global
Australia and Turkiye will co-host the summit which will be held in Turikye.
18-19 Nov 2026	APEC Economic Leaders Summit	Global
China will host the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Economic Leaders’ Meeting in Shenzhen. Leaders of APEC’s 21 member economies (which include the US, China, Japan, South Korea, Australia, Canada, and ASEAN economies, among others) will meet to promote regional trade and investment liberalisation.
2-4 Dec 2026	UN Water Conference	Global
The UN Water Conference - launched in 2023 as a spiritual successor to the 1977 UN Water Conference - will convene in the UAE with cohost Senegal for its second edition. Its purpose is to achieve SDG 6 on Clean Water and Sanitation, with particular attention paid to the fact that the UN system is now in the final third of its fifteen-year 2030 Agenda timeline.
5 Dec 2026	Presidential elections	The Gambia
Incumbent president Adama Barrow is running for a third term.
14-15 Dec 2026	G20 Leaders Summit	Global
The 21st G20 Leaders’ Summit is scheduled for Miami (Florida). The venue will be Trump National Doral in Miami, marking the first US-hosted G20 since 2008.