Geopolitical Calendar

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Date	Event	Location
3-4 Oct 2025	Legislative elections	Czechia
A government led by former Prime Minister Andrej Babis (populist and centrist party ANO) is the most likely outcome of the election, though ANO will likely need coalition partners, potentially including the far-right, populist alliance led by Freedom and Direct Democracy (SPD)’s Tomio Okamura.
7 Oct 2025	Anniversary of the onset of the Israel-Hamas conflict	Global
The anniversary will likely prompt an uptick in extremist propaganda globally, and increased intent to mount attacks from Islamist extremists, including in the Middle East, North Africa and Western countries.
12 Oct 2025	Presidential election	Cameroon
Incumbent President Paul Biya of the Cameroon People’s Democratic Movement (RDPC/CPDM) will likely seek re-election against a splintered opposition. The ruling party is likely to win the presidential election amid a fragmented opposition.
13-18 Oct 2025	World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF) Annual Meeting	Global
Experts, politicians and financial stakeholders will gather in Washinton DC (US) to discuss critically relevant issues to the global economy.
21 Oct 2025	Helsinki Security Forum	Global
The event will bring together experts and decision-makers to explore European security and defense. HSF 2025 will address how Europe can boost its competitiveness, invest in defence, and shape its security order. High-level delegates are expected to attend, and participants include representatives from the defence industry, research institutions, and government bodies.
22 Oct 2025	EU-Egypt Summit	EU/Egypt
The EU will be represented by European Council President António Costa and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, while Egypt will be represented by President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi. The summit comes within the framework of the comprehensive strategic partnership established in March 2024 that aims to deepen political and economic cooperation while supporting stability, peace, and shared prosperity. The war in Gaza, Ukraine, migration and security will likely be key part of the talks.
25 Oct 2025	Presidential election	Cote D’Ivoire
Incumbent President Alassane Ouattara, in office since 2011, is likely to run for a fourth term and win. Key opposition figures – including Tidjane Thiam, chairman of the Democratic Party of Côte d’Ivoire – are ineligible to stand for the presidency.
25 Oct 2025	Referendum	Bosnia and Herzegovina
Voters in Bosnia and Herzegovina’s ethnic Serb entity Republika Srpska (RS) will vote on whether they accept the courts’ decision to convict Milorad Dodik and later to remove him as RS president. Dodik has also stated that a referendum on independence for the Serbian entity might be held at a future date.
26 Oct 2025	Legislative elections	Argentina
President Javier Milei’s right-leaning La Libertad Avanza (LLA) party will likely increase its number of seats in Congress (legislature).
26-28 Oct 2025	ASEAN 47th Summit	Asia
The 47th ASEAN Summit will take place in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. Under the theme "Inclusivity and Sustainability," Malaysia's ASEAN Chairmanship will focus on strengthening regional cooperation in economic development, security, digital transformation, and environmental sustainability. The summits will convene leaders from ASEAN member states, as well as heads of government from non-ASEAN countries.
27 Oct 2025	Presidential election	Ireland
Incumbent president Michael Higginis is term-limited.
28-31 Oct 2025	APEC 2025 Summit	Global
South Korea selected “Building a Sustainable Tomorrow: Connect, Innovate, Prosper” as the theme and priorities for APEC 2025. It will discuss ways to strengthen the multilateral trading system with WTO at its core and economic competitiveness of the Asia-Pacific region through innovation and digitalization. It will also cover responding to global challenges such as energy issues, climate change, health, food security, and change in demographics.
28 Oct 2025	Presidential and legislative elections	Tanzania
President Samia Suluhu is seeking her first term as an elected president on the ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party ticket. Suluhu has increasingly reverted to Magufuli-era tactics to target the opposition ahead of the elections. In the context of an increasingly restricted civic space, Suluhu and the CCM will likely clinch a landslide win at the polls.
29 Oct 2025	Parliamentary elections	The Netherlands
Early elections are being held following the collapse of the coalition government. Prime Minister Dick Schoof (independent) on 3 June submitted his cabinet’s resignation after the far-right Party for Freedom (PVV) announced its withdrawal from the coalition. Shifting voter preferences have increased the likelihood of political deadlock between the three leading parties: Wilders’ PVV, the liberal People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) party, and the alliance of centre-left Labour Party (PvdA) and environmentalist GreenLeft (GL).
31 Oct 2025	G7 Energy and Environment Minister meeting	Global
Canada will host a G7 meeting of Energy and Environment Ministers. Ministers will discuss energy security, affordability, resilient supply chains, extreme weather prediction, and preparedness and response.
31 Oct-2 Nov 2025	2025 IISS Manama Security Dialogue	Global
A unique forum for ministers, policymakers and decision-makers to debate the Middle East’s most pressing foreign-policy, defence and security challenges.
4 Nov 2025	Off-year elections	United States
The off-year election includes gubernatorial and state legislative elections in a few states, as well as numerous mayoral races and a variety of other local offices.
7 Nov 2025	G20 Joint Finance and Health Ministerial Meeting	Global
The meeting will take place virtually. It will likely focus on mobilising financing mechanisms to combat health challenges, especially in global south countries.
10-20 Nov 2025	UN Climate Change Conference (COP30)	Global
Brazil will host the conference in the hope of making significant progress in climate agreements.
11 Nov 2025	Parliamentary election	Iraq
Elections will take place to elect the members of the federal parliament. Prominent Shia cleric Muqtada al-Sadr has called for a boycott of the electoral process; however, it remains unclear whether this boycott is certain or a strategic manoeuvre to gain political leverage.
11-15 Nov 2025	18th European Public Health Conference 2025	Europe
The conference is scheduled to take place from 11-14 November 2025, at the Finlandia Hall in Helsinki, Finland. This year's theme, "Investing for Sustainable Health and Well-being," aims to explore the connections between health, well-being, and sustainable development, highlighting how investing in health supports social, economic, and environmental sustainability.
16 Nov 2025	Presidential elections	Chile
Chile will vote for a new president and national legislators. The right-wing opposition Chile Vamos coalition's candidate, former Providencia mayor Evelyn Matthei (2016-24), will likely win the presidency; if a run-off is needed, it will be held on 14 December 2025.
18 Nov 2025	Local elections	Denmark
All 2,434 local and 205 regional councillors in Denmark's 98 municipalities and five regions will be up for election.
22-23 Nov 2025	G20 Leaders Summit	Global
The 2025 G20 Leaders' Summit will occur in South Africa. South African President Cyril Ramaphosa has put forth an agenda under the theme “Solidarity, Equality, and Sustainability” that builds on items addressed at recent G20 meetings in Brazil, India, and Indonesia. South Africa’s G20 agenda seeks to address issues that are especially important to emerging economies and will focus on climate change–related disaster resilience, debt relief for developing countries, and the mobilization of finance for a just energy transition. There will also be task forces on inclusive economic growth, food security, and technology governance.
23 Nov 2025	Presidential election	Bosnia and Herzegovina
Early elections for the president of the ethnic Serb entity Republika Srpska have been scheduled by the national government. The move follows a court decision to revoke the presidential powers of RS President Milorad Dodik. Dodik has threatened to block the electoral process by refusing to open polling stations, further intensifying the political crisis.
26 Nov 2025	EU-AU Summit	Global
EU-AU leaders will meet in Luanda, Angola for the seventh EU-African Union summit. This multilateral summit will be co-chaired by the President of Angola, João Lourenço, and the President of the European Council, António Costa. Key themes will include: peace and security, economic integration, trade, multilateralism, green development, digitalisation, migration, mobility and human development.
30 Nov 2025	General election	Honduras
The president, members of the National Congress, and 20 representatives to the Central American Parliament will be elected.
5-6 Dec 2025	23rd India-Russia Annual Summit	Russia/India
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi plans to host Russian President Vladimir Putin in India.
6-7 Dec 2025	Doha Forum 2025	Global
The 2025 Doha Forum will focus on "Diplomacy, Dialogue and Diversity”.
3 Jan 2025	The sixth anniversary of the US’s killing of Iran’s Gen Qasem Soleimani	Global
The sixth anniversary of the killing of Iran’s Gen Qasem Soleimani on 3 January will likely drive elevated intent by Islamist extremists to increase propaganda output to inspire attacks.
1-15 Feb 2026	General elections	Bangladesh
Bangladesh will hold general elections sometime between 1 and 15 February. The Bangladesh Nationalist Party is widely expected to win and form the next government. The two other prominent parties in the running are the National Citizen Party and Islamist party Jamaat-e-Islami.
24 Feb 2026	Fourth anniversary of Russia’s invasion into Ukraine	Ukraine/Russia
The anniversary marks the fourth year of Russia’s actions in Ukraine.