| 10 Mar - 8 Apr 2024 |
Muslim holy month of Ramadan
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Global |
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Terrorism threats and propaganda can be elevated in some regions during Ramadan. In addition, protests have occurred in Muslim-majority countries during Ramadan and the celebration of Eid al-Fitr (marking the end of Ramadan). Ramadan could also trigger anti-Muslim hate crimes or sentiment in some non-Muslim majority countries. Further clashes between Israelis and Palestinians are likely during Ramadan in the West Bank and in the vicinity of al-Aqsa mosque.
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23 Mar 2024
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Presidential election
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Slovakia
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| If no candidate receives more than half of the votes, a second round between the two leading candidates will take place on 6 April. |
| 24 Mar 2024 |
Presidential election |
Senegal |
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The government on 6 March announced that the presidential election will take place on 24 March. Political tensions will persist as the opposition will continue to denounce President Macky Sall’s decision to postpone the elections – initially scheduled for 25 February – citing this as being responsible for the current uncertain political situation. Opposition figure Bassirou Diomaye Faye, whose candidacy is backed by the main opposition leader Ousmane Sonko, is likely to secure victory in the two-round elections.
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29 Mar 2024
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Day of the Young Combatant
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Chile |
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| The day commemorates the 1985 killings of two brothers by the police. Violent protests in Santiago and other cities traditionally occur on the day. |
| 31 Mar 2024 |
Local elections |
Turkiye |
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| The government has a strong chance of regaining control of the Istanbul metropolitan mayoralty, which it lost in 2019 to an opposition unity alliance for the first time since 2002. A government victory will reinforce its momentum since its victory in the May 2023 general elections and will support ongoing reforms to redress economic imbalances and foster closer ties with the West. |
| 31 Mar 2024 |
Christian holiday of Easter Sunday
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Global
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The Easter religious holiday is not generally associated with elevated violent extremist threats, though attacks have targeted religious services in some countries (notably in Sri Lanka in 2019).
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| 4 Apr 2024 |
Legislative elections |
Kuwait |
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The limited time for new candidates to develop a distinct platform indicates that the opposition is likely to retain its parliamentary majority at the elections.
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| 7 Apr 2024 |
Local elections
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Poland
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The local elections will serve as a first test of how the new liberal-democratic government is faring and whether the opposition Law and Justice (PiS) party can mount a serious challenge.
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10 Apr 2024
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Legislative elections
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South Korea
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The scheduled elections will be critical for the policy agenda of President Yoon, as the governing party currently holds a minority of seats in the legislature.
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| 10 Apr 2024 |
Japan state visit to the US |
US |
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President Joe Biden will host Prime Minister Kishida Fumio. Biden and Kishida will discuss efforts to strengthen political, security, economic and people-to-people ties to address evolving challenges and secure the Indo-Pacific region.
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11 Apr 2024
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Expiry of IMF’s financial assistance programme
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Pakistan
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The USD 3bn Standby Agreement (SBA), which Pakistan secured in July, is scheduled to expire on 11 April. Following the expiry of the SBA, Pakistan will require a long-term financial assistance programme, one that an elected government will have the mandate to undertake.
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| 15-20 Apr 2024 |
IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings 2024 |
Global |
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Central bankers, finance ministers, private sector executives, civil society organizations and academics will gather in Washington DC (US) to discuss issues of global concern, including the world economic outlook, poverty eradication and economic development.
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| 17 Apr 2024 |
Legislative elections
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Croatia |
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Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic (of the governing Croatian Democratic Union, HDZ) on 8 March announced that the Sabor (parliament) will be dissolved on 14 March. The announcement represents a victory for the opposition parties calling for early elections, which are likely to continue engaging in protests against the government over allegations of corruption.
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17-19 Apr 2024
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G7 foreign ministers’ meeting
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Global
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The meeting will take place in Capri (Italy), with the Israel-Hamas and Ukraine conflicts being high on the agenda.
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19 April - 1 June 2024
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General elections
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India
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Prime Minister Narendra Modi is likely to secure a third consecutive term in office.
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| 20 Apr 2024 |
Legislative elections
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Togo |
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The ruling Union for the Republic (UNIR) of President Faure Gnassingbé is likely to win a comfortable parliamentary majority against a divided opposition.
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| 21 Apr 2024 |
Legislative elections
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The Maldives |
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Former president Abdulla Yameen, currently in prison on corruption charges, broke away from Muizzu’s ruling party soon after the elections. It is likely that Yameen’s supporters, along with those from Solih’s Maldivian Democratic Party, are likely to stage demonstrations against Muizzu’s party in the run up to the parliamentary elections.
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| 22-30 Apr 2024 |
Jewish religious holiday Passover (Pesach)
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Global |
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Right-wing and Islamist extremist threats targeting Jewish communities, people and assets are likely to be elevated in some countries during the Passover religious holiday. Islamist extremist groups have planned or conducted attacks targeting Passover celebrations in Israel. The Israel-Hamas conflict is likely to increase the intent of Islamist and right-wing extremists to target Jewish communities and religious assets during Passover.
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24 Apr 2024
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Presidential elections
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North Macedonia
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The elections are taking place amid heightened political tensions, as well as against the backdrop of longstanding ethnic tensions between the country’s Albanian minority and Macedonian majority.
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| 22 Apr 2024 |
US Supreme Court hears oral arguments in presidential immunity case
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US |
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The US Supreme Court on 28 February stated that it would hear oral arguments in an appeal brought by former President Donald Trump regarding his claimed immunity from criminal prosecution for actions taken while president. The timing suggests that a Supreme Court ruling is likely before the end of the court's term in June.
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| 28-30 Apr 2024 |
G7 climate, energy and environmental ministerial meeting |
Global |
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The meeting will take place in Torino (Italy) and will likely focus on energy security and climate goals.
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May 2024
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Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) anniversary summit
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Europe
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The EAEU will reportedly meet in Moscow (Russia) to hold a ten-year anniversary summit.
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| 1 May 2024 |
May Day |
Global
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May Day is typically celebrated by socialist and communist political movements and is a global day of action for anti-capitalist, anarchist and other left-wing activists. May Day protests in parts of Europe and North America involve vandalism, property damage, and clashes with law enforcement and right-wing counter-demonstrators.
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2 May 2024
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Local elections
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UK
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Major urban areas, including London, Liverpool and Manchester, will hold mayoral elections.
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5 May 2024
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General election
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Panama
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While former president Ricardo Martinelli (2009-14) was ahead in the polls with a substantial lead, his disqualification on 2 February rendered the race a toss-up.
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| 6 May 2024 |
Presidential elections
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Chad |
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Presidential elections are scheduled to be held, with a second round, if necessary, to be held on 22 June 2024.
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8 May 2024
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Legislative elections and second round of presidential election
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North Macedonia |
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The biggest issue for the new parliament and government will be changing constitution to recognise a Bulgarian minority. In exchange, Bulgaria will allow its West Balkan neighbour to start membership talks with the EU.
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12 May 2024
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Presidential election
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Lithuania |
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President Gitanas Nausėda is standing for re-election, and polls put him well ahead of competitors.
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15 May 2024
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Nakba Day
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Israel, Palestinian Territories
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Palestinians commemorate Nakba (“catastrophe”) – a term they use to refer to when more than 700,000 Arabs fled or were expelled during the creation of Israel. Protest will likely be draw higher turnout globally driven by the Israel-Hamas conflict.
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19 May 2024
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General election
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Dominican Republic
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President Luis Abinader, from the Modern Revolutionary Party (PRM), will run for re-election.
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20 May 2024
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Presidential inauguration
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Taiwan
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Lai Ching-te’s inauguration is unlikely to cause a significant escalation of cross-Strait tensions.
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21-24 May 2024
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Global Supply Chain Forum
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Global
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In Bridgetown (Barbados), government officials, business leaders and experts will attend an inaugural forum to discuss supply chain links to digitalisation, food security, transport costs, climate change, developing countries’ financing needs and how to better manage the energy transition in international transport.
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23-25 May 2024
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G7 finance minsters meeting
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Global
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The meeting will take place in Stresa (Italy).
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| 29 May 2024 |
General elections |
South Africa |
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General elections will be held to elect members of the 400-member National Assembly, as well as the nine provincial legislatures. The parliament will then select the president. The ruling African National Congress (ANC) is likely to remain in power through a slim majority or through a coalition with several smaller parties. President Cyril Ramaphosa is likely to be elected for a second term (until 2029 ).
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30-31 May 2024
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AI for Good Summit
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Global
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The summit will bring together governments, non-profit research institutions, corporations and international organisations to discuss how to navigate an age in which technology is advancing at an exponential, unprecedented rate.
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1 Jun 2024
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OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC)
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Global
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The OPEC+ ministerial meeting is scheduled to meet to discuss adjusting production quotas.
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| 1 Jun 2024 |
Presidential election |
Iceland |
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Incumbent president Guoni Th. Johannesson has announced he will not seek re-election in 2024. Iceland’s president is head of state with limited political powers.
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2 Jun 2024
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General election
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Mexico
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Incumbent President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) is term-limited. The main presidential candidates will be Claudia Sheinbaum (ruling party MORENA) and Xochitl Galvez (opposition party PAN).
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6-9 Jun 2024
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European Parliament elections
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EU
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Far-right and populist parties will likely receive increased support, reflecting the broader trend in recent European country elections.
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| 6-9 Jun 2024 |
Local elections |
Ireland |
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Left-wing nationalist party Sinn Féin will likely continue its momentum of recent years of securing a large proportion of votes.
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| 9 Jun 2024 |
Federal elections |
Belgium |
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The 150 members of the Chamber of Representatives will be elected for a five-year term.
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| 10 Jun 2024 |
Iraqi Kurdistan regional elections |
Iraq |
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Political parties representing the Christian and Turkmen communities in the Iraqi Kurdistan Region announced on 11 March their resolve to boycott the parliamentary elections in the region if Iraq's federal court did not guarantee their minority quota seats in the Kurdish legislature.
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13-15 Jun 2024
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G7 leaders’ summit
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Global
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The summit – held in Puglia (Italy) – will include the defence of Ukraine, the conflict between Israel-Hamas, and respect for international rules, economic and energy security, migration, and more equal partnership with Africa.
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| 22 Jun 2024 |
Presidential elections |
Mauritania |
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Opposition parties are likely to continue to demand electoral reforms and call for the dissolution of the CENI if it refuses to enact reforms.
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28 Jun 2024
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General election
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Mongolia
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The incumbent Mongolian People’s Party (MPP) is likely to retain a majority in parliament. The elections will see parliament expanded from 76 members to 126, following constitutional amendments in June 2023.
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July 2024
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Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO)
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Asia/Europe
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Kazakhstan will host the annual SCO summit in Astana. Belarus will reportedly join the organisation.
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1 Jul - 31 Dec 2024
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Hungarian Council presidency
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EU
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Hungary is due to take over the rotating presidency of the Council of the EU, although a majority of EU leaders are likely to oppose granting Hungary greater influence over the EU policy agenda.
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9-11 Jul 2024
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NATO summit
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Global
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The 2024 summit will take place in Washington DC (US) and will mark the 75th anniversary of the establishment of the alliance. Ukraine’s prospective accession to NATO is a key agenda item, though no invitation is likely to be made at this time.
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| 9-10 Jul 2024 |
Eid al-Adha
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Global |
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Celebrations marking the annual Eid al-Adha holiday have been targeted in attacks by Islamist extremist groups, mainly in Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, and the Middle East.
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15 Jul 2024
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General elections
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Rwanda
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Incumbent President Paul Kagame will likely secure a fourth term, with the ruling Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF) likely to retain its majority in parliament, given a tightly controlled political environment.
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15-18 Jul 2024
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US Republican Party National Convention
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US
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Delegates in Milwaukee (Wisconsin state) will select the party’s nominees for president and vice-president in the 2024 US presidential election.
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16-17 Jul 2024
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G7 trade ministers’ meeting
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Global
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The meeting will take place in Villa San Giovanni in Reggio Calabria (Italy).
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26 Jul - 11 Aug 2024
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2024 Summer Olympics
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Global
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The 2024 Summer Olympics will take place in Paris and other locations around France and in French overseas territories.
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| 28 Jul 2024 |
Presidential elections
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Venezuela |
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The government retains a variety of tools to ensure its desired electoral outcome, including control of the Consejo Nacional Electoral (National Electoral Council) and courts, dominance of state-controlled media and the deployment of government-allied irregular militias to harass and threaten the opposition and its supporters.
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19-22 Aug 2024
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US Democratic Party National Convention
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US
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Delegates in Chicago (Illinois state) will select the party’s nominees for president and vice-president in the 2024 US presidential election.
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1 Sep 2024
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Saxony and Thuringia state elections
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Germany
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| Saxony and Thuringia states are due to hold state elections. |
| 1 Sep 2024 |
Legislative elections
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Czechia |
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Czechia will see regional elections and the election of one-third of the Senate (upper house), serving as gauge of public sentiment for political parties ahead of the 2025 general election.
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22 Sep 2024
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Brandenburg state election
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Germany
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Brandenberg state is due to hold state elections.
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22-23 Sep 2024
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Opening of the UN General Assembly/The UN Summit of the Future
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Global
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The summit aims to enhance cooperation on critical challenges and address gaps in global governance, reaffirm existing commitments including to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the United Nations Charter, and move towards a reinvigorated multilateral system.
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October 2024
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Parliamentary elections
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Austria
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The election must be held by the end of the five-year term of the current 27th National Council on 23 October.
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October 2024
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BRICS summit |
Global
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Russia will reportedly hold the summit in Kazan. It will be the first summit with expanded BRICS membership.
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| 6 Oct 2024 |
Local elections |
Brazil |
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The polls are expected to reflect the rivalry between Brazil’s two main political camps, with President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva likely to back leftist Congressman Guilherme Boulos of the Socialism and Liberty Party who is running for mayor of Sao Paulo.
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7 Oct 2024
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One-year anniversary of Hamas’ incursion into Israel
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Israel/Palestinian Territories
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The date marks the first anniversary since Hamas launched a large-scale attack and kidnap operation against Israel.
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9 Oct 2024
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General election
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Mozambique
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Uncertainty remains around the Frelimo presidential candidate for the 2024, as a clear successor to President Filipe Nyusi is yet to emerge.
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9-11 Oct 2024
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G7 health ministers’ meeting
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Global
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The meeting will take place in Ancona (Italy).
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13 Oct 2024
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Legislative elections
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Lithuania
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A government reshuffle before the scheduled elections cannot be ruled out, but any transitions are likely to be smooth.
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21 Oct - 1 Nov 2024
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UN Convention on Biological Diversity (COP16) to the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD)
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Global
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Colombia will host COP16; the country has 10% of the planet’s biodiversity. In 2023, a progressive agreement was made to ensure critical conservation by 2030.
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26 Oct 2024
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Legislative elections
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Georgia
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There will be 150 seats up for election in a fully proportional electoral system with a 5% threshold for the first time. Russian influence in the country has increased in previous elections.
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27 Oct 2024
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General election
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Uruguay
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If no presidential candidate receives a majority in the first round of voting, a runoff will take place on 24 November 2024.
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November 2024
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The 29th Conference of the Parties (COP29) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
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Global
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Baku will host COP29 after Azerbaijan’s selection as host after Russia vetoed any bid by an EU country.
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November 2024
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3rd Global AI Safety summit
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France
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In November 2023, France agreed to host a 3rd Global AI Safety summit.
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| November 2024 |
Quadrilateral Security Dialogue summit
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US/India/Australia/Japan
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The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, including Japan, Australia, the US and India, is expected to hold a summit in India at the end of 2024.
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5 Nov 2024
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Presidential election
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US
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Incumbent President Joe Biden will contest the presidential election against former President Donald Trump (2017-21) in a closely contested election likely to be won by small margins across a handful of swing states. There will also be elections for all 435 seats in the House of Representatives, 34 seats in the Senate, and 13 state and territorial governorships.
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18-19 Nov 2024
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G20 leaders’ summit
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Global
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Brazil will host the G20 leaders’ summit in Rio de Janeiro.
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27 Nov 2024
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Regional elections, including Jakarta
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Indonesia
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Regional elections are scheduled, including to elect the Jakarta governor to a five-year term.
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| 30 Nov 2024 |
General election
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Mauritius |
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Incumbent Prime Minister Pravind Jugnauth will likely face an emboldened and increasingly united opposition. The elections will be conducted in a context of heightened anti-government sentiment given cost of living pressures and alleged corruption in the ruling Mauritian Alliance coalition government. This will fuel minor incidents of unrest, but widespread instability is highly unlikely.
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December 2024
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South Africa ascends to G20 Presidency
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Global
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South Africa will take over from Brazil.
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| Early-Mid December 2024 |
GCC leaders’ summit |
Global
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The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) alliance is due to hold its annual Supreme Council leaders’ summit to agree shared policy positions across member countries to drive collective policymaking and coordination over the coming year.
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2-13 Dec 2024
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UNCCD Conference of Parties 16th session (COP16)
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Global
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Saudi Arabia will host the UN Convention to Combat Desertification COP16 in Riyadh.
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7 Dec 2024
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General elections
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Ghana
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The opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC) and its presidential candidate former president John Dramani Mahama (2012-17) are likely to win the polls, defeating incumbent vice president Mahamadu Bawumia, who is the candidate of the ruling New Patriotic Party
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| 10-11 Dec 2024 |
2024 Doha Forum
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Qatar |
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| The 2024 Doha Forum will address “unprecedented forces of fragmentation rippling through geopolitics, technology, and international trade”. It features prominent speakers including UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres, US Envoy Tim Lenderking, Chatham House Director Bronwen Maddox, US Senator Lindsey Graham, and other political and civil society figures. |
