This fortnightly report by Control Risks highlights key incidents during the reporting period. We examine how these incidents play into the election interference trends we’re observing and their impact on Brazilian organisations and individuals.
Election interference and disinformation incidents
- US, 6 November 2024 former President Donald Trump’s victory in the US 2024 presidential election is likely to boost support for Brazil’s right-wing party.
Implications for elections: former President Jair Bolsonaro’s supporters are preparing to get him amnesty after an electoral court ruled that he is ineligible to run for public office until 2030. Receiving amnesty would likely allow Bolsonaro to run for office in the 2026 election, which could cause misinformation to spread around the 2026 election and its eligibility.
- Brazil, 25 October 2024 the Brazilian Judiciary has implemented mitigation measures through the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) and the Federal Supreme Court (STF) to combat disinformation.
Implications for elections: the Brazilian government aims to continue to combat disinformation in upcoming elections by regulating the use of artificial intelligence (AI), implementing the Electoral Disinformation Alert System (SIADE) and increased coordination between the TSE, the STF, the Ministry of Justice and other public and private institutions to maintain election integrity.
- Brazil, 06 November 2024 Chinese President Xi Jinping is scheduled to arrive in Brazil on 20 November, following the G20 summit, which will be held on 18-19 November.
Implications for elections: during the visit discussions will continue about whether Brazil will join China’s Belt and Road Initiative. However, President Trump’s victory may cause tension in negotiations with China, as Trump has pledged to implement at least a 10% increase on import tariffs and a 60% tariff on Chinese goods. Since the summit will take place before President Trump takes office, disinformation surrounding many of his proposed policies and how they could impact Brazil could circulate before, during and after.
- Brazil, 25 October 2024 after the addition of Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran and the United Arab Emirates in January to BRICS, the group is attempting to settle on some common goals. Brazil continues to block Venezuela’s entry to BRICS, while Russia and China both support Venezuela’s petition to entry.
Implications for elections: the expansion also diversifies BRICS’ interests. China and Russia aim to follow an anti-Western agenda, while Brazil prefers a nonalignment stance. Either plan could result in Brazil making decisions that could cause unrest and dissatisfaction within the country. Disinformation surrounding Venezuela’s request of entry into BRICS and what its entry to the group would mean for Brazil could circulate on social media. There will likely be heightened interest from advanced state threat actors in gathering insights from government officials into Brazil’s position towards Brazil’s BRICS strategy and its relationship with BRICS members for the foreseeable future.
- Latin America, 6 November 2024 the ToxicPanda malware is circulating in Latin America and is expected to reach Brazilian Android users soon.
Implications for elections: the malware aims to carry out fraudulent banking transactions via account takeover on compromised Android devices. The malware, likely developed by China-based threat actors, also has the ability to exfiltrate credentials from cryptocurrency wallets. A campaign such as this is likely to cause financial threat or loss of funds to those whose devices are infected. Users should ensure they download apps from legitimate sources, such as the Apple Store or Google Play Store, and ensure apps are updated.
Social engineering awareness
- Medusa ransomware group targeted Brazilian department store, Marisa S.A., and demanded a ransom of USD 300,000.
Disinformation education
- Voters in Brazil should continue to verify the legitimacy of videos, text and audio clips containing information relating to the election given the increase in AI deepfakes.
Social media monitoring
- Users on X have continued to express their distrust in mainstream media sources in Brazil, claiming they are unsure what is accurate.
- Users on X have acknowledged that Brazil has continuously been targeted in social engineering campaigns for a variety of reasons, including political motivations and financial gain.
Electoral protection in Brazil: cybersecurity training and support
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