Escalating conflict in the Middle East

The continued conflict between US-Israel and Iran is widening the scope of threats and targets across the physical and digital landscape, including maritime routes.

Targeted countries

Iranian strikes have broadened. Evacuation is complex. For most, shelter in place is the best advice. Obey instructions from local authorities and diplomatic missions.

Anticipate extended disruptions, maintain supplies of household essentials.

Limit your movements, especially near military installations and US bases.

Maritime threats

All vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz are at high risk.

Vessels across the region will almost certainly experience signals interference related to air defence measures.

The Houthis will resume attacks on the Red Sea if targeted or Iranian regime survival is threatened.

Cyber threats

The conflict has increased the likelihood of short‑notice, high‑volume cyber activity, particularly from state‑aligned hacktivists and influence operations.

Historical patterns from prior Israel–Iran escalations show cyber activity peaking within days, often timed to headlines and political signalling rather than operational necessity.

The existential nature of the kinetic operation means IRGC, MOIS and associated organisations with cyber capability will be increasingly likely to ‘spend’ on the shelf and prepositioned offensive cyber capabilities against Israel, US, Middle Eastern states and other organisations based in high priority target countries for Iran.

Outlook

The killing of Khamenei will not trigger immediate change in Iran’s posture.

Multiple rounds of US-Israel/Iran reciprocal attacks likely in coming days.

The death of Khamenei may expose divisions between clerical elites, political conservatives and security factions, worsening political instability.