RiskMap 2019 | The new reality and the new resilience
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Back in 1993 when I joined Control Risks, RiskMap was called Business Security Outlook. Its purpose then—as now—was to give you our best take on the key risks coming over the horizon for your enterprise. Our mission has always been to prepare you for what might happen, not to predict what will happen. With the perspective now of a quarter century, I can fairly say that it is harder to do this now than ever before—which I think reinforces the importance of us focussing our minds at the end of the year on what the next twelve months may bring.
Much has changed since 1993. But, interestingly, a few events from that year are still shaping–for better or for worse–the world we have to navigate today. The Maastricht treaty that created the European Union was signed in the Dutch city of the same name. The nuclear research facility CERN, in Switzerland, made its world wide web software freely available, accelerating the development of the internet as a business tool. And, tragically, Ramzi Yousef killed six people in his unsuccessful attempt to blow up the World Trade Center in New York, a deadly harbinger of what was to happen on 9/11 and a foreshadowing of the rise of a new brand of extremist terrorism.
Those three events set in train trends that are woven deep into the matrix of risk and opportunity that we each have to factor into our business planning. The globalisation of trade was well underway in 1993, but we could not then anticipate the zenith that it would reach. And now the norms of global trade, politics and business that we have become accustomed to and built our business models around are being hammered into something new by the forces of fierce national identity and competition for jobs, technology and tax revenue. Climate change has gone from being a peripheral scientific risk to being a key determinant of all our futures. Big data has gone from being the stuff of futuristic Hollywood thrillers to being the ubiquitous mantle on which all our business, financial, political and social systems rest. This can deliver massive, disruptive opportunities but also a new generation of risks and vulnerabilities.
So, what’s next? RiskMap 2019 presents the Top 5 Risks for business in the coming year and in The new global reality for business, strives to clarify the world in which we will be operating in 2019. RiskMap is not just about the risks, however. In The new resilient business, we lay out how the challenges we face in how to run and manage our businesses are also endowed with tremendous opportunities for those of us able to apply a new mindset to risk management in this era of unprecedented volatility. Business resilience is not just a defensive posture: done properly it is the differentiating strategic enabler.
I hope you enjoy RiskMap and I am sure you will find it a thought-provoking primer for the world in 2019. It has been my privilege to have spent most of my working life at Control Risks and to have played my part at the helm of the firm in delivering great work for our clients. I wish you all future success in charting a successful course in this complex world, avoiding some of the pitfalls, and building organisations that are secure, compliant, and resilient.
Richard Fenning, CEO, Control Risks
The world is in transition. In a fractured world order, the business of business is no longer just business – it is increasingly diplomacy.
Control Risks’ pick of the Top Five Risks to business in 2019
The global transition will accelerate in 2019. Take your eye off the pace and the direction of change at your peril.
Companies doing business in China and with China need to redefine their position and purpose in 2019.
Control Risks’ forecast mapping for 2019
The big project faces some big questions
The players and disruptors that will challenge business in 2019
A new type of resilience is needed to seize opportunities in 2019
The scene is set for some nation defining tussles
Fiery rhetoric will meet the fractured reality
Control Risks’ analysts are located across the world. This is their pick of the countries to watch in 2019.
Hue and cry but no change of style.
Tussles at the top herald a bumpy ride for all
The leading data set on global kidnap
How will Iran respond as US sanctions kick in?
A tight race for two visions of Nigeria
The UK peers over the edge
A return to coalition government beckons
East Africa’s giant limbers up. By Patricia Rodrigues
No nuclear deal would be very bad news
The forecast of political and security risk for every country in the world.
The numbers keep getting worse for Pakistan
Rising expectations, weak foundations
AMLO’s many promises are put to the test.
Venezuela will plumb new depths in 2019
Dark waters in the Gulf of Guinea
Picking wins in the US China trade war