Two years into President Donald Trump's second term, the mid-term elections on 3 November will deliver the first verdict on the coalition that propelled him back to power. They will determine control of Congress and thousands of state-level offices, most of which will assume power in January 2027 and remain in place throughout the rest of Trump’s term until January 2029. The results will also provide an early indication of where Trump’s coalition is holding together or coming under pressure, and which political strategies are likely to shape the 2028 presidential race.
Our forecast
Control Risks forecasts that Democrats will win the House of Representatives while Republicans narrowly retain the Senate. The House outlook is straightforward: Democrats are benefiting from a favorable national environment and are competitive across a broad range of districts, making a change in leadership very likely.
The Senate is a considerably tighter contest: Democrats have made substantial gains in polls across several Republican-held seats and are increasingly competitive in states that a year ago appeared out of reach. However, Republicans hold a structural advantage in the Senate map. To take control, Democrats must win at least five of the seven races currently rated “Toss Up” by the nonpartisan election analysis outlet Cook Political Report. This leaves little margin for error, meaning that even a strong Democratic night would not necessarily yield a Senate majority.
Three factors underpin our Senate forecast. First, Republicans have been outspending Democrats in the races that will determine control of the chamber. Their significant financial advantage will allow them to sustain heavy advertising entering the final month of the campaign.
Second, polls risk understating GOP strength. Rural Republican voters have been historically difficult to capture accurately in surveys, and they stand to prove particularly important in determining whether Democrats convert momentum into actual victories. Conversely, some Democratic Senate candidates – particularly in Michigan and Texas – are benefiting from greater engagement among younger electors, who have typically been less likely to turn out in mid-term elections. This creates a second potential source of divergence between polling and election results if Democratic appeal is concentrated among lower-propensity voters.
Third, candidate-specific factors and state dynamics threaten to materially affect the outcome. National political trends do not always carry over directly into Senate races: Republican Susan Collins remains competitive in heavily Democratic Maine state, in part because of the strength of her independent brand. Meanwhile, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed is underperforming the party’s baseline in recent Michigan polling, potentially reflecting the challenges of running as a progressive in a relatively conservative state. (Democrats must win these two states to be competitive for Senate control.) Similar divergences are evident in gubernatorial contests – also scheduled for 3 November – across the country, illustrating the extent to which candidate strength and local political conditions often cut across broader partisan trends.
The Senate race is not simply a referendum on the national political environment. Democrats can continue to post strong numbers in many polls, while Republicans retain a viable path to holding the chamber if those leads do not translate into victories across enough of the decisive states.
What to watch on election night
On polling day, results from early-closing races on or near the East Coast, beginning with parts of Indiana and Kentucky, will begin to be released at 6:00pm and 7:00pm EST, establishing whether Democrats are performing broadly in line with our expectations or exceeding them.
Yet the most important early races for assessing the scale of Democratic gains will be Texas, Iowa and Kansas. Democratic Senate victories in any of these states would represent a significant departure from recent presidential voting patterns, suggesting that the national environment extends beyond the traditional battlegrounds.
Demographic performance will be equally important. Democrats are likely to make their strongest gains among suburban, college-educated and Latino voters, reflecting dissatisfaction with the Trump administration's immigration and economic policies. Republicans are likely to lose some support among working-class voters and farmers. It’s clear that affordability concerns, agricultural tariffs, fertiliser costs and energy prices are contributing to dissatisfaction among parts of Trump’s 2024 coalition.
With less than a month remaining, Republicans have limited time to reverse these trends, though campaign spending and renewed emphasis on economic issues stand to narrow some of the gaps.
Even modest Democratic gains among Latinos in Texas, rural voters in Iowa or working-class groups in Michigan and Ohio will generate alarm among national Republicans. Such results would likely be interpreted as evidence that key elements of the coalition assembled in 2024 are coming under pressure, potentially opening new electoral opportunities for Democrats in 2028.
Turnout will provide a separate test of that coalition. Republican participation is likely to decline from the unusually high levels seen during Trump's presidential campaigns, reflecting his absence from the ballot and growing dissatisfaction among some supporters. At the same time, Democrats are likely to benefit from stronger participation among their own voters and from gains among independents and some disaffected Republicans. This is likely to produce a modest erosion of the Republican coalition rather than a wholesale realignment: enough to tighten several competitive states, but not enough to fundamentally reshape the electoral map in a single cycle.
Outlook
The midterms will also offer the first meaningful clues about which voting blocs, electoral alignments and messages are likely to shape the 2028 presidential race. With Trump constitutionally unable to seek another term, Republicans will be grappling with whether his political model is able to survive without him, while Democrats debate how to respond to the conditions that delivered him to the White House.
The key question looming over the GOP will be whether Trump’s coalition can be transferred to other candidates. A strong Republican performance, particularly if it includes high turnout among rural, working-class and Latino voters, would bolster candidates arguing for continuity with Trump’s political approach, including JD Vance. Conversely, significant Republican losses among these groups would increase pressure on the party to rethink its electoral formula, perhaps returning to a more traditional candidate like Marco Rubio or an outsider like Tucker Carlson.
For Democrats, the geographic and demographic composition of their gains matters, alongside the size of their congressional majority. Gains concentrated among college-educated and suburban voters would reinforce an electoral strategy centered on rebuilding the voter base that supported Democrats in recent presidential elections. Gains among Latino, rural and working-class voters would create a more compelling case for a broader coalition and potentially recast the emerging Democratic primary debate. For example, a particularly solid performance by Jon Ossoff in Georgia will significantly strengthen his position in the emerging 2028 field, demonstrating that a Democrat can build a broad coalition in a closely divided swing state. Conversely, strong performances by progressive candidates across the country would strengthen the case for a more progressive approach and elevate national figures such as Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.
The results will also begin to reconfigure the field of potential 2028 candidates. Candidates whose states or constituencies perform significantly better than the national trend will have an early opportunity to claim that their political model is capable of winning beyond the party's traditional base. Conversely, candidates associated with constituencies or strategies that underperform could face greater pressure to adapt.
The midterms will therefore provide an early indication of future political strategies. The overall balance of power will matter, but the demographic and geographic pattern of the results will provide the more important signal for the 2028 presidential race.
For businesses, the result will help determine the policy environment for the remainder of Trump’s term, and provide an early indication of how US political priorities may evolve beyond 2028.