Geopolitical Calendar

Date	Event	Location
May 2024	Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) anniversary summit	Europe
The EAEU will reportedly meet in Moscow (Russia) to hold a ten-year anniversary summit.
1 May 2024	May Day	Global
May Day is typically celebrated by socialist and communist political movements and is a global day of action for anti-capitalist, anarchist and other left-wing activists. May Day protests in parts of Europe and North America involve vandalism, property damage, and clashes with law enforcement and right-wing counter-demonstrators.
2 May 2024	Local elections	UK
Major urban areas, including London, Liverpool and Manchester, will hold mayoral elections.
5 May 2024	General election	Panama
While former president Ricardo Martinelli (2009-14) was ahead in the polls with a substantial lead, his disqualification on 2 February rendered the race a toss-up.
6 May 2024	Presidential elections	Chad
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held, with a second round, if necessary, to be held on 22 June 2024.
8 May 2024	Legislative elections and second round of presidential election	North Macedonia
The biggest issue for the new parliament and government will be changing constitution to recognise a Bulgarian minority. In exchange, Bulgaria will allow its West Balkan neighbour to start membership talks with the EU.
12 May 2024	Presidential election	Lithuania
President Gitanas Nausėda is standing for re-election, and polls put him well ahead of competitors.
15 May 2024	Nakba Day	Israel, Palestinian Territories
Palestinians commemorate Nakba (“catastrophe”) – a term they use to refer to when more than 700,000 Arabs fled or were expelled during the creation of Israel. Protest will likely be draw higher turnout globally driven by the Israel-Hamas conflict.
19 May 2024	General election	Dominican Republic
President Luis Abinader, from the Modern Revolutionary Party (PRM), will run for re-election.
20 May 2024	Presidential inauguration	Taiwan
Lai Ching-te’s inauguration is unlikely to cause a significant escalation of cross-Strait tensions.
21-24 May 2024	Global Supply Chain Forum	Global
In Bridgetown (Barbados), government officials, business leaders and experts will attend an inaugural forum to discuss supply chain links to digitalisation, food security, transport costs, climate change, developing countries’ financing needs and how to better manage the energy transition in international transport.
23-25 May 2024	G7 finance minsters meeting	Global
The meeting will take place in Stresa (Italy).
29 May 2024	General elections	South Africa
General elections will be held to elect members of the 400-member National Assembly, as well as the nine provincial legislatures. The parliament will then select the president. The ruling African National Congress (ANC) is likely to remain in power through a slim majority or through a coalition with several smaller parties. President Cyril Ramaphosa is likely to be elected for a second term (until 2029 ).
30-31 May 2024	AI for Good Summit	Global
The summit will bring together governments, non-profit research institutions, corporations and international organisations to discuss how to navigate an age in which technology is advancing at an exponential, unprecedented rate.
1 Jun 2024	OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC)	Global
The OPEC+ ministerial meeting is scheduled to meet to discuss adjusting production quotas.
1 Jun 2024	Presidential election	Iceland
Incumbent president Guoni Th. Johannesson has announced he will not seek re-election in 2024. Iceland’s president is head of state with limited political powers.
2 Jun 2024	General election	Mexico
Incumbent President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) is term-limited. The main presidential candidates will be Claudia Sheinbaum (ruling party MORENA) and Xochitl Galvez (opposition party PAN).
6-9 Jun 2024	European Parliament elections	EU
Far-right and populist parties will likely receive increased support, reflecting the broader trend in recent European country elections.
6-9 Jun 2024	Local elections	Ireland
Left-wing nationalist party Sinn Féin will likely continue its momentum of recent years of securing a large proportion of votes.
9 Jun 2024	Federal elections	Belgium
The 150 members of the Chamber of Representatives will be elected for a five-year term.
10 Jun 2024	Iraqi Kurdistan regional elections	Iraq
Political parties representing the Christian and Turkmen communities in the Iraqi Kurdistan Region announced on 11 March their resolve to boycott the parliamentary elections in the region if Iraq's federal court did not guarantee their minority quota seats in the Kurdish legislature.
13-15 Jun 2024	G7 leaders’ summit	Global
The summit – held in Puglia (Italy) – will include the defence of Ukraine, the conflict between Israel-Hamas, and respect for international rules, economic and energy security, migration, and more equal partnership with Africa.
22 Jun 2024	Presidential elections	Mauritania
Opposition parties are likely to continue to demand electoral reforms and call for the dissolution of the CENI if it refuses to enact reforms.
28 Jun 2024	General election	Mongolia
The incumbent Mongolian People’s Party (MPP) is likely to retain a majority in parliament. The elections will see parliament expanded from 76 members to 126, following constitutional amendments in June 2023.
July 2024	Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO)	Asia/Europe
Kazakhstan will host the annual SCO summit in Astana. Belarus will reportedly join the organisation.
1 Jul - 31 Dec 2024	Hungarian Council presidency	EU
Hungary is due to take over the rotating presidency of the Council of the EU, although a majority of EU leaders are likely to oppose granting Hungary greater influence over the EU policy agenda.
9-11 Jul 2024	NATO summit	Global
The 2024 summit will take place in Washington DC (US) and will mark the 75th anniversary of the establishment of the alliance. Ukraine’s prospective accession to NATO is a key agenda item, though no invitation is likely to be made at this time.
9-10 Jul 2024	Eid al-Adha	Global
Celebrations marking the annual Eid al-Adha holiday have been targeted in attacks by Islamist extremist groups, mainly in Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, and the Middle East.
15 Jul 2024	General elections	Rwanda
Incumbent President Paul Kagame will likely secure a fourth term, with the ruling Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF) likely to retain its majority in parliament, given a tightly controlled political environment.
15-18 Jul 2024	US Republican Party National Convention	US
Delegates in Milwaukee (Wisconsin state) will select the party’s nominees for president and vice-president in the 2024 US presidential election.
16-17 Jul 2024	G7 trade ministers’ meeting	Global
The meeting will take place in Villa San Giovanni in Reggio Calabria (Italy).
26 Jul - 11 Aug 2024	2024 Summer Olympics	Global
The 2024 Summer Olympics will take place in Paris and other locations around France and in French overseas territories.
28 Jul 2024	Presidential elections	Venezuela
The government retains a variety of tools to ensure its desired electoral outcome, including control of the Consejo Nacional Electoral (National Electoral Council) and courts, dominance of state-controlled media and the deployment of government-allied irregular militias to harass and threaten the opposition and its supporters.
19-22 Aug 2024	US Democratic Party National Convention	US
Delegates in Chicago (Illinois state) will select the party’s nominees for president and vice-president in the 2024 US presidential election.
1 Sep 2024	Saxony and Thuringia state elections	Germany
Saxony and Thuringia states are due to hold state elections.
1 Sep 2024	Legislative elections	Czechia
Czechia will see regional elections and the election of one-third of the Senate (upper house), serving as gauge of public sentiment for political parties ahead of the 2025 general election.
22 Sep 2024	Brandenburg state election	Germany
Brandenberg state is due to hold state elections.
22-23 Sep 2024	Opening of the UN General Assembly/The UN Summit of the Future	Global
The summit aims to enhance cooperation on critical challenges and address gaps in global governance, reaffirm existing commitments including to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the United Nations Charter, and move towards a reinvigorated multilateral system.
October 2024	Parliamentary elections	Austria
The election must be held by the end of the five-year term of the current 27th National Council on 23 October.
October 2024	BRICS summit	Global
Russia will reportedly hold the summit in Kazan. It will be the first summit with expanded BRICS membership.
6 Oct 2024	Local elections	Brazil
The polls are expected to reflect the rivalry between Brazil’s two main political camps, with President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva likely to back leftist Congressman Guilherme Boulos of the Socialism and Liberty Party who is running for mayor of Sao Paulo.
7 Oct 2024	One-year anniversary of Hamas’ incursion into Israel	Israel/Palestinian Territories
The date marks the first anniversary since Hamas launched a large-scale attack and kidnap operation against Israel.
9 Oct 2024	General election	Mozambique
Uncertainty remains around the Frelimo presidential candidate for the 2024, as a clear successor to President Filipe Nyusi is yet to emerge.
9-11 Oct 2024	G7 health ministers’ meeting	Global
The meeting will take place in Ancona (Italy).
13 Oct 2024	Legislative elections	Lithuania
A government reshuffle before the scheduled elections cannot be ruled out, but any transitions are likely to be smooth.
21 Oct - 1 Nov 2024	UN Convention on Biological Diversity (COP16) to the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD)	Global
Colombia will host COP16; the country has 10% of the planet’s biodiversity. In 2023, a progressive agreement was made to ensure critical conservation by 2030.
26 Oct 2024	Legislative elections	Georgia
There will be 150 seats up for election in a fully proportional electoral system with a 5% threshold for the first time. Russian influence in the country has increased in previous elections.
27 Oct 2024	General election	Uruguay
If no presidential candidate receives a majority in the first round of voting, a runoff will take place on 24 November 2024.
November 2024	The 29th Conference of the Parties (COP29) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)	Global
Baku will host COP29 after Azerbaijan’s selection as host after Russia vetoed any bid by an EU country.
November 2024	3rd Global AI Safety summit	France
In November 2023, France agreed to host a 3rd Global AI Safety summit.
November 2024	Quadrilateral Security Dialogue summit	US/India/Australia/Japan
The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, including Japan, Australia, the US and India, is expected to hold a summit in India at the end of 2024.
5 Nov 2024	Presidential election	US
Incumbent President Joe Biden will contest the presidential election against former President Donald Trump (2017-21) in a closely contested election likely to be won by small margins across a handful of swing states. There will also be elections for all 435 seats in the House of Representatives, 34 seats in the Senate, and 13 state and territorial governorships.
18-19 Nov 2024	G20 leaders’ summit	Global
Brazil will host the G20 leaders’ summit in Rio de Janeiro.
27 Nov 2024	Regional elections, including Jakarta	Indonesia
Regional elections are scheduled, including to elect the Jakarta governor to a five-year term.
30 Nov 2024	General election	Mauritius
Incumbent Prime Minister Pravind Jugnauth will likely face an emboldened and increasingly united opposition. The elections will be conducted in a context of heightened anti-government sentiment given cost of living pressures and alleged corruption in the ruling Mauritian Alliance coalition government. This will fuel minor incidents of unrest, but widespread instability is highly unlikely.
December 2024	South Africa ascends to G20 Presidency	Global
South Africa will take over from Brazil.
Early-Mid December 2024	GCC leaders’ summit	Global
The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) alliance is due to hold its annual Supreme Council leaders’ summit to agree shared policy positions across member countries to drive collective policymaking and coordination over the coming year.
2-13 Dec 2024	UNCCD Conference of Parties 16th session (COP16)	Global
Saudi Arabia will host the UN Convention to Combat Desertification COP16 in Riyadh.
7 Dec 2024	General elections	Ghana
The opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC) and its presidential candidate former president John Dramani Mahama (2012-17) are likely to win the polls, defeating incumbent vice president Mahamadu Bawumia, who is the candidate of the ruling New Patriotic Party
10-11 Dec 2024	2024 Doha Forum	Qatar
The 2024 Doha Forum will address “unprecedented forces of fragmentation rippling through geopolitics, technology, and international trade”. It features prominent speakers including UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres, US Envoy Tim Lenderking, Chatham House Director Bronwen Maddox, US Senator Lindsey Graham, and other political and civil society figures.