The recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic will be more challenging to the relevance and cohesion of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) than the initial first wave. In-fighting began before 2020 ended, and no member can balance its budget at current oil price levels.

Terrorism is an evolving threat and will warrant close monitoring in 2021. COVID-19 has exacerbated many of the existing political, religious and socioeconomic drivers of terrorist violence across regions and this is no time complacency.