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Palestinian militant group Hamas on 31 July confirmed the killing of the head of its political bureau, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran (Iran), following claims by Israel on 30 July that it had targeted Hizbullah’s senior commander Fouad Shukur in Beirut (Lebanon).
- The strike targeting Shukur will prompt a response from Hizbullah, with the movement aiming to re-establish deterrence while avoiding a full-blown conflict. Similarly, Iranian authorities will be compelled to respond to Haniyeh’s killing, which they have attributed to Israel.
- Retaliatory measures will likely be calibrated to avoid an all-out regional war and our national-level war risk ratings remain MEDIUM for Israel, Lebanon and Iran.
- Our evacuation advice remains to evacuate non-essential personnel from Lebanon, place personnel on standby in Israel, and exercise caution in Iran.
- Should Hizbullah opt to conduct a large-scale attack against civilian infrastructure deep within Israel, we would likely reconsider our risk ratings and evacuation advice for Lebanon.
Targeted killings
The Israel Defence Forces (IDF) on 30 July conducted a calibrated drone strike in the Haret Hriek (Mount Lebanon governorate) in the southern suburb of Lebanese capital Beirut, killing at least four civilians and injuring 80. According to Israel, the strike killed Shukur, a senior Hizbullah commander who was responsible for the movement’s missile and drone programmes. Hizbullah has not confirmed Shukur’s death.
Israel described the strike as retaliation for a 27 July rocket attack that killed 12 people in Majdal Shams in the Israeli-annexed but disputed Golan Heights. The IDF claims that Shukur was responsible, though Hizbullah has denied responsibility. The strike constitutes the first time that Israel has targeted a Hizbullah official in Beirut since the beginning of cross-border attacks on 8 October 2023.
Meanwhile, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) on 31 July confirmed Haniyeh’s killing. According to local newspaper Tehran Times, Haniyeh – who was based in Qatar and was in Tehran for the swearing in of Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian – was targeted at 2:00am (local time) by a “projectile strike”. Although Israel does not confirm or deny involvement in operations in the region (to the exception of those conducted in Lebanon), it was likely responsible for the killing.
Hizbullah response
The calibrated strike on Shukur highlights Israel’s intention to avoid an uncontrolled escalation. Our nationwide war risk rating for Lebanon remains MEDIUM, and we maintain our evacuation advice at evacuate all non-essential personnel. Still, upward pressure on both ratings will persist over the coming days.
Shukur is the most senior Hizbullah official to be killed since the start of the conflict and Israel’s targeting of a Hizbullah official in Beirut will be seen as escalatory. While Hizbullah will be compelled to respond, it will likely seek to avoid a full-blown conflict with Israel as it has more to lose from such a scenario. Hizbullah will likely form a response in line with previous tit-for-tat attacks, such as a large-scale attack against IDF sites in northern Israel, or a small-scale attack further inland without causing significant damage or casualties. Nationwide war risk in Israel remains MEDIUM and our evacuation advice remains at standby.
In the comparatively less likely – but plausible – scenario where Hizbullah opts to conduct a large-scale attack against civilian infrastructure deep within Israel (including in Tel Aviv), further escalation would become more likely. This could prompt Israel to target further Hizbullah officials and assets in Beirut, and Hizbullah to seek to widen its targeting pattern and deploy more impactful weapon systems. Should this scenario materialise, it would likely prompt us to reconsider our risk ratings and evacuation advice.
Iran’s likely response
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on 31 July vowed to punish Israel. Haniyeh’s killing is likely to prompt a calibrated response, not least because it underscores a failure to defend against Israeli operations in a short span of time, following a 19 April strike on a military base near Isfahan. This will compel Tehran to respond with a face-saving measure, though the nature of the response will likely depend on the modus operandi presented by authorities. If they confirm an airstrike violating Iran’s airspace, a direct but calibrated response against the perceived attacker, Israel, is risky but possible. However, if they describe the attack as a covert operation, which is more likely, for example involving drones launched from within Iranian territory, Tehran is unlikely to opt for a direct response. In that scenario, Tehran would likely leverage Iran-backed groups regionally, particularly in Iraq, to target Israel.
Our war risk rating for Iran will remain MEDIUM as its response will likely seek to avoid an uncontrolled escalation with Israel. Even in the context of further retaliatory action, assets and personnel in Tehran are unlikely to face direct security threats. We maintain our evacuation rating at caution.